Don’t forget your jacket this morning! Temperatures in the 40s this AM will feel unseasonably cool and, to some of you, downright unfamiliar. The last time we saw temperatures this cold was May 27th — Nearly 4 months ago.

Brace yourselves…. This isn’t the coolest it’s going to get!

After we reach a mild 63° for today’s high, tonight’s temperatures will feel more like mother nature left the freezer door open. Overnight temperatures are going to dip low, low, low into the upper 30s for the first time this year since May 5th. Cinco de Mayo!

A low of 38 degrees is just a touch too warm to see any frost on the ground, but in rural areas, under the right conditions, it just may happen.

I can’t take credit for this information (Chris Vickers spent the morning compiling some data for us), but I will say these numbers suprised me just a smidge.

Growing up in Buffalo, I remember spending Halloweens in my snowsuit (with my glittery costume stretched over it’s puffiness) and freezing my fingers and toes off on my way to the school bus early in the year, but here in the Greater Toledo Area, on the other end of the lake, I had assumed things would be a bit different.

Beginning with our friends in Williams County, climatologically speaking, the historical average for the first day we should expect to see frost would be October 6th — still over 3 weeks away from today.

Moving South, Lima folks are usually under that first blanket of frost by October 10th, while Bowling Green residents are only a few days behind on October 13th — still nearly a month away!

True to my originl beliefs, the lake does play a big role in freezing conditions — Sandusky and Put-In-Bay don’t experience an official freeze until nearly the beginning of November… BUT contrary to all the facts, it looks like we’re about to get some frost inducing temperatures and freeze worthy weather.

Everything is bigger in Texas…apparently it’s hotter too.   On Tuesday, September 13th Dallas, Texas recorded a record high of 107°.

What’s even more amazing about this is the number 70, as in the number of times Dallas has reached 100° or warmer this year.  This sets the record for the most 100° degree days ever recorded in a year for the city surpassing 1980 (69 days)

How would that compare to Toledo?  We recorded 100° only once — thankfully so — this year.  That was on July 21st when the mercury soared to 102°.

While we continue to track the chance of showers and thunderstorms around the region, a light at the end of the tunnel is now within view. Showers beginning over 4 days ago have now begun to taper off and slow down, but isolated thunderstorms now being sparked are causing a bit of commotion in areas around Findlay tonight.

A really interesting Special Weather Statement has been issued by the National Weather Service regarding local funnel clouds being spotted due to these storms.

It says: 

FUNNELS… ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS [are] OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT-LIVED AND VERY RARELY
TOUCHES DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THESE FUNNELS ARE OCCURRING
IN IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG…DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON THE RARE
OCCASIONS THAT THE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE GROUND…LITTLE…IF ANY…
DAMAGE OCCURS.

If you remember, a little less than a month ago (Aug 14th) waterspouts formed under the same conditions and were spotted up in Port Clinton.

It’s incidents like these that really make me marvel at mother nature Something so destructive in one sittuation can just be something fascinating in another.

Have a great weekend!

After yesterday’s models were split as to whether or not the track of Tropical Storm Nate would bring it up into the Gulf Coast, or NW into Mexico, a unanimous decision seems to have been made.

Notice the similarities in model projections for Nate, which have the Tropical Storm moving into the Mexican coast by early Monday morning. Right now, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coastal region from Chilitepec to Celestun. Nate’s winds are near 65mph with a relatively stationary motion

While areas of Texas continue to carry on with a serious rain defecit (Dallas-Fort Worth is at -8” for the year so far), others are begging mother nature to cease and desist before this rain makes cities and towns unrecognizable under a layer of water. Take a look at these pictures from York, PA where nearly a foot of rain has all but buried the city.

These remnants of what had been Tropical Storm Lee, including flash floods, tornadoes and non-stop rain have authorities reacting with a real sense of urgency. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that at least 7 people have lost their lives due to flooding related incidents and over 100,000 residents of PA, NY, MD have been evacuated. Families staying in shelters and away from their permanent residences are expected to stay away from their homes until Sunday at the earliest.

While showers still brew up and down the affected region, authorities say it will be a while before they can really survey the damage done that included a partial bridge collapse in northern Pennsylvania, vehicles and other property swept away, and failed sewage treatment plants.

The mayor of Binghamton, N.Y., said the severe Susquehanna River flooding was the worst in more than 60 years.

As discussed by Ryan, several areas of concern have now developed into noteable Tropical Storms set to make landfall.

After reaching Category 4 status earlier this week, Hurricane Katia is no longer being categorized as a Major Hurricane. As of 5am Thursday morning, Katia had sustained winds of 90mph (the storm would need 110+ for it to be considered a Major Hurricane) and is tracking Northward at 14mph. Early tracks planned for Katia to have some sort of impact on the East Coast, but as things are constantly changing in the Gulf, Katia’s path has taken a turn, so to speak, for the better.

A rare, but reassuring occurance… ALL models agree that Katia will now TURN back out towards the Atlantic Ocean, leaving the United States unscathed by its fury.

Alternately, it looks as though TS Maria as well as TS Nate will have coastal impacts, but not initially on the US.

Moving West at a quick pace of 23mph, Tropical Storm Maria is packing sustained winds of 50mph. Projections for the storm have Maria reaching the eastern Caribbean islands within the next 48 hours. As of 5am Thursday, forecasters say Maria has a rather disorganized formation, and may not band together in time to make a large impact.

Finally, a trapped and slow moving TS Nate is projected to make landfall in Mexico between Monday and Tuesday of next week. With sustained winds of 45mph, Tropical Storm Nate is only moving at 1mph to the East, so it still has a lot of time and resources to tap into (being centered over the Gulf of Mexico) to organize and gain a bit of power.

In a year that has already seen 12 named storms, the Atlantic basin looks to be just now reaching its stride. Yesterday, Hurricane Katia reached Category 4 status with sustained winds of 135 mph. Making it the strongest storm so far in the 2011 year.

Hurricane Katia forecasted path

In additon to Katia, the National Hurricane Center is investigating at least 3 more areas for possible development in the next 48 hours.

Red Circle will likely become the next tropical storm by WED

Investigation area, near the Cape Verde Islands

As a testiment to just how far long-range tropical forecasts are coming, take a look at the official National Hurricane Center forecasts from earlier this year:

The conditions expected this year have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the 2011 season could see activity comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:

• 12-18 Named Storms,
• 6-10 Hurricanes
• 3-6 Major Hurricanes
• An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median.

Enough model uncertainty still exists so it remains a “close call” but all indications point toward a sharp turn in Hurricane Katia by Thursday morning.  This should steer the then major hurricane back out to the Atlantic Ocean avoiding any significant impact on the US coastline.

Current Satellite Imagery:

Latest forecast path:

Check back for the latest updates through the week!

Is it just me or does Katia seem to have a hard time making up her mind?

From Tropical Storm to Hurricane BACK to Tropical Storm, and as of 7am Sunday morning, Katia is now a Hurricane once again. I guess that’s the problem when sustained winds linger right around 70-75mph (the cutoff for a hurricane strength storm is 74+). Even so, as the storm progresses at 12mph to the NW, questions are being raised as to when and IF Katia will affect the US.

Current projections for the storm’s path have Katia moving just south of Bremuda Wednesday and towards the East Coast next weekend.

In the Gulf of Mexico, TS Lee is proving that being a Tropical Storm doesn’t mean you can’t cause major damage. The relentless storm has been hovering over the Gulf coast for days now, dropping inches upon inches of rain and requiring a certain amount of alertness from local authorities. Since Friday, over 90 Tornado Warnings have been issued because of Lee and its components.

Because TS Lee is only moving NE at 3mph, damages caused by the storm have yet to be surveyed because areas under its direct impact are still feeling the wrath of the storm. For now, tens of thousands of residents are without power, coastal regions are experiencing massive flooding and at least ten confirmed tornadoes have touched down.