Don’t forget your jacket this morning! Temperatures in the 40s this AM will feel unseasonably cool and, to some of you, downright unfamiliar. The last time we saw temperatures this cold was May 27th — Nearly 4 months ago.

Brace yourselves…. This isn’t the coolest it’s going to get!

After we reach a mild 63° for today’s high, tonight’s temperatures will feel more like mother nature left the freezer door open. Overnight temperatures are going to dip low, low, low into the upper 30s for the first time this year since May 5th. Cinco de Mayo!

A low of 38 degrees is just a touch too warm to see any frost on the ground, but in rural areas, under the right conditions, it just may happen.

I can’t take credit for this information (Chris Vickers spent the morning compiling some data for us), but I will say these numbers suprised me just a smidge.

Growing up in Buffalo, I remember spending Halloweens in my snowsuit (with my glittery costume stretched over it’s puffiness) and freezing my fingers and toes off on my way to the school bus early in the year, but here in the Greater Toledo Area, on the other end of the lake, I had assumed things would be a bit different.

Beginning with our friends in Williams County, climatologically speaking, the historical average for the first day we should expect to see frost would be October 6th — still over 3 weeks away from today.

Moving South, Lima folks are usually under that first blanket of frost by October 10th, while Bowling Green residents are only a few days behind on October 13th — still nearly a month away!

True to my originl beliefs, the lake does play a big role in freezing conditions — Sandusky and Put-In-Bay don’t experience an official freeze until nearly the beginning of November… BUT contrary to all the facts, it looks like we’re about to get some frost inducing temperatures and freeze worthy weather.

Everything is bigger in Texas…apparently it’s hotter too.   On Tuesday, September 13th Dallas, Texas recorded a record high of 107°.

What’s even more amazing about this is the number 70, as in the number of times Dallas has reached 100° or warmer this year.  This sets the record for the most 100° degree days ever recorded in a year for the city surpassing 1980 (69 days)

How would that compare to Toledo?  We recorded 100° only once — thankfully so — this year.  That was on July 21st when the mercury soared to 102°.

After 40 consecutive 100 degree days in Dallas, Texas the temperature yesterday fell short of the mark topping the thermometer at 97 degrees.  This record breaking heat wave was only eclipsed by the summer of 1980 when 42 consecutive days of 100 degree heat were observed at Dallas.  We did feel some of this heat earlier this summer, but the good news for us now, no heat like this in the near future.  Temperatures over the next week will be near normal with highs generally in the lower 80s. 

Record high temperatures on several occasions along with persistent heat brought the 2nd warmest July on record!  Now that the month has come to a close, the average monthly temperature was 78.8°.  This mark is +5.8° above normal and is only eclipsed by July of 1921 where the average monthly temperature was 79.0°.

The warmest day was 102° on July 21st.  Now imagine this…Dallas Texas is currently on a streak of 30 consecutive days of temperatures ABOVE 100° for a total of 37 days of triple digit heat this year.  I expect some of the warmest weather of the season remains over the central and southern plains through the first week of August continuing the schortching hot weather.

Not that i’m living under a rock, but i made the realization this afternoon that in just three short days, we’ll be saying ‘Good-Bye July, Hello August!’

So after a month of record breaking heat and rain, i think we’d all agree that August can be as tame as it wants and no one will complain. A nice fellow called back to the Weather Center this morning asking about the overall trend and how things will change as the rest of the summer progresses, so i did a little research and found some answers.

Last year, August only saw 5 days in the 90s. So far this July, we’ve had 18!

The hottest day last August was the 29th with a temperature of 93 degrees. (The coolest was 8/27; 49°). This July, we’ve had temperatures exceed 100° once and reach the upper 90s and handful of times.

We saw 7 instances of rain last August, none of which exceeded an inch. This July we’ve had 6 days of rain, the most occuring on the 22nd with 1.26 inches in less than 24 hours.

Overall, records set for the month of August are as follows:

Highest temperature for the month was recorded in 1918. It was 103 degrees.

Lowest? 39° in 1964.

Now, according to the Climate Prediction Center Outlook, a study issued this month says the combined climate of August/September/October is likely to be slightly above average. Studies indicate this fall may start late, prolonging warmer temperatures from July into August, and maybe even breaking some records along the way.

Of course this is all preliminary data, but it’s interesting to read up on some of these studies and then watch how things unfold. In my opinion, this July has set us up for an interesting August. July’s big heat, humidity, and dry/wet spells may lead us into another summer month with more of the same.

I guess we’ll all just have to wait and see!

Over 10'' in less than 24 hours

According to forecasters from the Quad Cities National Weather Service, the current rain totals have exceeded daily records and resulted in a new all time wettest July record for that region.

And it doesn’t stop there. Areas of convection and low level convergence are likely to bring even more rain into the region before things finally taper off and move on tomorrow and into the weekend.

Stay Dry Iowans!

As Chris mentioned in his previous post, this July is shaping up to be one of the warmest on record. Beaten out so far only by the 79.0 degree July in 1921, 2011′s July has packed a real punch in the heat department. After doing a bit of research into some climatological data, here’s what i’ve found.

July, 2011

Two record highs were recorded. On July 2nd, our high temperature of 98 degrees surpassed the old record of 97 degrees set back in 1911. The second record set this month occurred on the 21st with a temperature of 102 degrees, beating out the old record of 99 degrees set back in 1930. We also tied the 1942 record of 96 degrees on July 18th.  

Beyond that, i did a little number crunching. For us to achieve the record of the hottest July ever recorded, temperatures would have to remain in the upper 80s during the day and upper 60s over night. The average temperature for the month is taken by adding together all temperatures (both highs and lows) and dividing by the total, so I worked out things to an exact number for us to achieve the record.

Bear with me

Using 62 data points (or 31 days, high and low) the magic number we need to reach is 4898/62 = 79.0 degrees

I just figured that out by adding together all the highs and lows so far this month, and estimating the temperatures for the remaining days.

Right now the monthly # is at 4101, so we need to come up with 797 degrees total over the course of the next 5 days.

Figure everyday was a 90 degree day with lows in the low 70s.

July 27: High 90 Low 70

July 28: High 90 Low 70

July 29: High 90 Low 70

And so on… So we get this:  (90*5) + (70*5) = 800

800 would be enough to surpass the old record, bringing the total degree points up to 4901. Now of course it’s not likely that things will happen exactly that way, but if you take a look at my 7-day, i’m forecasting something similar.

Anyways, regardless of if the record is broken, i think we can all agree that this has been a very hot month!

Stay Cool!

I’ve been keeping tabs on it, and yes we are 0.1° off of a tie for the warmest July on Record!  As it stands now, we are 2nd all  time with a monthly average temperature of 78.9°.

I’ll keep you updated as July comes to a close!

The record heat wave has come to and end…for now at least! More on when it will return in just a minute. We did rack up 9 consecutive days of 90° or warmer that covered a stretch from Saturday July 16th through Sunday July 24th. While it was a persistent and impressive heat wave it did fall 2 days short of a tie for 11 consecutive days at 90° or warmer in August of 1959.

What remains amazing is that the total 90° days this month now stands at 17 (with several more in the forecast!). This means that roughly 70% of days so far this month have been 90° or warmer! In fact, July of 2011 will likely be one of the warmest on record.

1. 79.0 1921
78.9 2011* unofficial
2. 78.6 1916
3. 78.3 1955
4. 77.8 1931
5. 77.6 2002
6. 77.6 1949
7. 77.6 1935
8. 77.5 1901
9. 77.4 1934
10. 77.3 1999

We currently rank 2nd on the list for all time warmest July’s and I expect more heat is in store later this week. Here’s why. The recent heat wave has not “moved on” it has only been suppressed back south for a short time. The dominant ridge anchored over the southern plains and the southeast will hold its ground sending the jet stream back north into Canada allowing a hot, humid zonal flow in the atmosphere (Generally a west to east flow). This should bring temperatures back into the 90s by Wednesday and remain there until at least the beginning of the weekend.