It’s been a very mild start to the new year, and to no surprise there is no snow to be found across our area.  As we head into the middle of January, that’s unusual.  The lack of Arctic air into the United States has been a dominant theme.  In fact, only 14% of the country has snow cover at this point in the month.  (If you follow my previous posts, this is due to a positive phase of the AO or Arctic Oscillation).  The result a mild beginning to January:

The warm weather and lack of snow has has some shelving the snow skis and reaching for the golf clubs.  Measured snow for Toledo so far this season has been 5.2″ which is -7.2″ below normal.  Toledo is not alone take a look at large cities across the lower Great Lakes that are suffering from huge snowfall deficits so far this season:

The average snowfall for a winter in Toledo is around 37″.

Reach into the mail box the next couple of weeks, grab the bill you see to heat your home and hold your breath…but you may be in line for a pleasant surprise.  Heating bills up to this point in the year are likely to be dramatically less compared to this point last year.  After a very harsh December of 2010, this past December was very mild.  Here’s the difference:

The most recent average temperature of 35.1° for December of 2011  was an astounding 10.5° warmer than the previous December of 2010 which averaged 24.6°.

It was the wettest year on record– officially broken in late December–and it pushed Toledo nearly 1″ above the previous record set back in 1950. 

 Highlights of the past year include:

Second wettest April on Record (6.33″)

Ninth wettest May on Record ( 5.88″)

Third driest June on Record ( 0.51″)

Wettest November on Record (7.14″)

 Toledo was just one of several dozen cities across the Great Lakes an North East to set all time precipitation records in 2011. 

Oh so close…despite the recent rains we fell 0.14″ of rain short of a tie for the wettest year on record.  No worries, over two weeks left in the month and I am nearly certain we will set the record by the middle of next week.  Here is the latest precipitation total for this year and where we stand in respect to the top 5 wettest years on record.

It’s almost officially winter and you may be asking “Where’s the snow?”  Good question.  Many have braced for a brutal winter, but it has certainly been quite a tame start to the season.  How does this year stack up to last year up to this point?  Check it out, the comparison from mid December 0f 10′ to mid December of 11′. 

December 13th of 2010:

 December 13th, 2011

 At Toledo specifically, the measurable snow for this season to date is 2.8″ which is -1.4″ below average up to this point.  That may seem like an insignificant amount, and I’d agree with that.  But the main message is the undeniable differences between this past winter and how this winter is unfolding.  Here is a closer examination of the Great Lakes region.

Great Lakes Snowpack:

 December 2010                                                                     

  December 2011

 Winter will undoubtedly bite with vengeance bringing the snow and cold, But not any time soon.   As I discussed in my winter weather outlook in my earlier posting, ouR winter would be controlled more so by shorter term atmospheric teleconnections, specifically the Arctic Oscillation (AO).  A positive phase on the AO equates to mild weather for the eastern half of the Untied States while a negative phase equates to an intrusion of Arctic air that would be more favorable for a hearty and thicker snowpack.  Here is the data backing this up…comparison of the AO from the past few Decembers. 

The positive, warmer phase has been dominant, and looks to remain so through at least late December.  This explains the lack of snow over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region so far this season.   The AO has dominated over all other factors including La Nina.

On average, our area (meaning the Toledo Express Airport) receives one inch or more of precipitation 13 times within a 24-hour day in any given calendar year. So where do we stack up so far this year? I did some research to find out!

To keep it current, I compiled the data from January 2011- October 2011.

In January, the most precipitable water we received was the first of the month at a value of 0.88”, but in four separate events over the course of the month we saw over an inch of snow. The greatest amount fell on January 11th — an amount of 4.2”. These don’t count, so it brings our tally to 0/13.

In February, 6 snow events brought us over 1” of snow, but once again we didn’t see the equivalent of 1” or more of precipitation this month, so the tally remains at 0/13.

In March, commonly known as a rainier month, only one day provided the area with more than 1” of rain. March 5th the Toledo Express Airport recorded 1.15”. Tally: 1/13.

In April, 22 days out of the month saw rain (that’s 73.3% of the month!), but none of those showers brought more than 1” of precipitation. Tally stands at 1/13.

In May, the wet weather finally found its footing and dropped significant precipitation over the region. 23/31 days of the month saw rain showers with two of those events (or in fact, one single event over the course of 48 hours) bringing more than 1” of rain. Tally: 3/13.

In June, dry weather plagued the area. We only saw .51” of rain the whole month! Clearly not adding to the tally. 3/13.

In July, one rain event late in the month brought an impressive 1.26” to the region. Otherwise the month was also pretty dry. Tally: 4/13.

In August, steady showers returned to the region. Once this month we saw over 1” of rain with another impressive event. 1.86” of rain fell on August 24th bringing the running tally up to 5/13.

In September, we saw extremely wet weather. 20/30 days of the month recoreded at least some precipitation. 2 days within the month brough over 1” of rain. The tally jumps to 7/13.

So far this October, we’ve seen very dry weather. Today’s event has already brought us over an inch of rain, but otherwise, the tally stays put…

The final tally so far this year is 8/13 days with an inch or more of precipitation with just November and December remaining. If anything, there is one good lesson to learn from this small group of data. Any event that showers us with more than 1” of precipitation is the exception to the rule. Stay Dry!

With dry and sunny weather all week, be prepared for the fall color to sprout out!  Our peak colors will arrive in the middle of October.

Septermber of 2011 tied for the 5th wettest September on record.  Enough with the rain already, right?  Looks like early October will trend toward a much warmer and drier pattern.

At first recall, I think most folks would agree… When you look back on this past summer, one thing resonates. HOT. With today being the last official calendar day of summer, I thought it was appropriate to review the departing season and dissect what really took place. Above average temperatures are just one thing I noticed in my findings…

For the sake of this blog post, I’m taking into account the entire months of June, July, August, and the first half of September. I know that this is NOT the actual calendar equivalent of the summer season, but it illustrates the seasonal patterns better if done this way.

June. 30 days.

1. 18 days with temps above average (60%)
2. 10 days with temps below average (33.3%)
3. 2 days with temps right at average (6.6%)
4. 6 days with temps 90°+

July. 31 days.

1. 28 days with temps above average (90.3%)
2. 2 days with temps below average (6.45%)
3. 1 day with temps right at average (3.23%)
4. 20 days with temps 90°+

August. 31 days.

1. 21 days with temps above average (67.74%)
2. 5 days with temps below average (16.13%)
3. 5 days with temps right at average (16.13%)
4. 1 day with temps 90°+

September. 21 days. (excluding today — data not yet released.)

1. 7 days with temps above average (33.3%)
2. 12 days with temps below average (57.14%)
3. 2 days with temps right at average (9.52%)
4. 3 days with temps 90°+

Right off the bat, you’ll notice temperatures were above average more often than they were AT average, or below. Except for when we reached September. In the month of June, 60% of the days were above average while July brought temperatures above average 90% of the time! August was no exception with 67% above average. Then as September began to unfold, a new pattern started taking shape. Temperatures fell below average for extended periods of time, and days with temperatures below average have thus far outnumbered those with temperatures above average.

Another thing to notice this summer was monthly precip:

• June + .51” (-3.29 below avg.)
• July + 3.34” (+.54 above avg.)
• August + 3.19” (+.04 above avg.)
• September (so far) + 3.84” (already +1.86 above avg.)

While July was easily the hottest month of the summer, June was the driest. Bringing totals down more than 3” below average, a serious lack of rain in the month of June left folks wondering when the seasonal rain would finally arrive. July provided the answer with rain totals slightly above average for the month, and August followed suit with rainfall amounts nearly dead-on.

Once again, a pattern change took place once calendar pages were flipped to September. Already this month, we’ve seen nearly 4 inches of rain — leaving monthly totals nearly 2 inches above average. The patterns suggest something we’ve all known for a long time now: September is very much a transitional month, allowing summer to end as gracefully as possible and ushering in autumn. It will continue to do so as we finish out the month in just one short week, and say hello to October.

A brisk Canadian high pressure system ushered some very cool temperatures into our region this week.

With an average high of 76° for this time of year, yesterday’s high of 60° was downright cold — sixteen degrees below average! Not only that, but overnight cooling went to an extreme as well. Almost breaking the record low of 35° set back in 1966, Thursday night’s low temperature dipped into the upper 30s for the first time since May 5th of this year. That’s a fourteen degree deviation from the average low temperature for this time of year.

Now as we move through the day today, we look as temperatures slowly moving back towards average. With a low of 44° and a forecasted high of 68°, temperatures still have a clear depature from normal — 9 and 8 degrees respectively — but we are moving in the right direction, none the less.