Tornado crossing the Mississippi Tornado in 2011

The myth stems from how formidable rivers can seem to us. We have to build bridges, take boats or simple go around these natural features. The fact of the matter is – a storm is not affected by a river — If anything a river can actually enhance a storm (albeit very rarely and to a small scale).

NW Ohio Tornado History 1950-2010

If you live near a river, don’t feel there is a special dome of protect for you. Everyone anywhere can be hit by severe weather and tornadoes.

VIDEO: Tornado crossing a large river in Springfield, Mass. — http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NchH55X9Dc8

This is one of the most dangerous severe weather myths I have heard, especially here in northwest Ohio. A lot of people honestly believe it. First…let me bust this myth by showing this video of a tornado moving through mountains and valley in Tennessee.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEr2lCnQcow

Although the video has proven tornadoes do cross valleys, let’s continue on the assumption that MAYBE valleys do change the path of a storm. Below is a picture from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources that shows the topography (height above sea level) of Ohio. Notice that Northwest Ohio is certainly the lowest part of Ohio but there are no significant valleys to affect storms. Severe storms that reach 40-50 thousand feet into the atmosphere will not be deterred in anyway by a 50-100 foot change in elevation on the ground.

A famous video (click HERE to view) from the early 90s is largely to blame for this myth. The theory is that if you’re driving along the highway and find yourself in the direct path of a tornado, the best place to hide is under an overpass. Well it turns out that is actually one of the worst places to be. The bridge funnels the air currents and acts like a wind tunnel, actually increasing the wind speeds!

In the video a film crew, along with a family, hide under the girders for protection. Since this clip has been released others have attempted the same protective course of action, only to end in a much more tragic fashion. In the video, although it looks like the tornado went directly overhead, it did not. Barely missing the family/film crew and sparing them from the strongest winds.  

So what SHOULD you do if you come up to a tornado in the road? It’s a good question without a single answer. Many times you will be able to simply stop or speed away from the storm. If that is not the case, a next best step is to get out of your car and hide as low as possible in a ditch. Keep in mind you want to avoid a flooded ditch and by exiting your car, you become exposed to flying debris, hail, etc. If this moment happens to you, there is no guidebook, just instincts. But one thing is for sure, don’t use overpasses to try and protect yourself.

April 5 — Jackman and Laskey

April 10 — Woodville road

April 14 ^{— Lambertville}

April 18 — Waterville

April 24 — Port Clinton

April 26 — Suder Ave
We program the radio so it will only alert you when you specifically are under the gun for severe weather. A weather radio is one of the best tools anyone can have to be alerted any time of anyday. Want more information? Check out this story: http://www.wtol.com/global/Story.asp?s=12681658 (Please ignore the dates at the bottom)

The answer is, how warm it is right now really doesn’t tell us anything about how warm or cold we will be months down the road.

For the past 120 years, records have been kept in Toledo and warmer than average months earlier in the year have shown little to no connection to how warm the rest of the year will be. While the science of meteorology is rapidly advancing we still do not have a great understanding for long term forecasting (3-6months+). There are simply too many factors and our computing powers simply aren’t fast enough yet for the complex equations to be run.

This winter was a great example of our long range forecasting downfalls as a meteorology community.

 Lets take this a week or two at a time. Enjoy the warmth and sun, mother nature doesn’t spoil us too often.

So far the National Weather Service has confirmed 45 tornadoes from Friday’s outbreak; the SPC has 121 filtered tornado reports listed on their website as of March 6^th. There is still a question as to the exact number of strong to violent tornadoes but the total will likely end up in the mid 20s. The strongest of these tornadoes is the Henryville, EF4.
While damage surveys are still on-going on reported tornado paths in parts of the Midwest and Deep South, the question has been thrown out: Was this the largest March tornado outbreak in U.S. history?

The answer, yes and no.

In recent memory March 9, 2006 was a significant severe weather day across the central plains. 54 total tornadoes touched down, 22 F2 rating or stronger. It is likely that the March 2^nd, 2012 outbreak will top these numbers.

A likely bigger and more wide reaching event occurred on Palm Sunday 1920. The March 28^th event spawned 38 significant (F2+) Tornadoes. Since weaker tornadoes were not as well documented in the early 20^th century a total tornado count cannot be known. Simply based on the significant tornado count, it is not likely this most recent outbreak will top 1920.

The big question becomes….is there really more severe weather occurring or is out knowledge and awareness increasing to the point of catching every storm?

Over the past few decades storm reports have increased due to an increasing population density and undoubtedly storm chasers. Tornadoes are reported and recorded that simple would not have been seen 10 years ago without these eyes on the storm.

No matter what the exact numbers end up being, this was a devastating tornado outbreak and we wish a speedy recovery for those communities affected.

No that wasn’t hail you saw Sunday Afternoon. It’s called ‘Graupel’. It forms in very similar ways to hail in a thunderstorm but in a much colder environment.

One of the best things you can learn about the weather is: Warm air rises. I know it didn’t feel warm today, but our high of 36 is balmy compared to single digits just a few thousand feet above our heads. As this ‘warm’ at the surface rises, water droplets form. First creating clouds, then super cooled water droplets. The water droplets stay in a liquid form despite actually being colder than freezing. These super cooled water droplets collide with falling snowflakes and form the graupel you saw today!

So how do you tell the difference between hail and graupel?

-Hail forms during spring and summertime thunderstorms and is very hard. Like an ice cube.

-Graupel typically forms during heavy snow/wintery mixes and easily falls apart in your hand.

Always a very transitional month, this October has provided our region with LOTS of variety. After a wet September, October broke the pattern with .05” of rain on the first day of the month, then 10 straight days of sunshine and dry weather. Within those dry days, we saw temperatures jump way above average with 5 days in the 80s!

Once that was over, we skipped right over the 70s and landed in the 60s and 50s for the remainder of the month (save a few days in the upper 40s).

No worries, though! While we typically rely on cooler temperatures and less sunshine to help turn the color of the leaves, this year the process was delayed, but more vibrant that most years! Some significant rain showers blew through the region on the 19th (1.84”) and we saw temperatures dip below freezing on the 22nd.

No matter how you look at the development of the weather patterns this month, it still remains clear that things haven’t quite leveled out. Into November, we’ll look for a persistant cooling pattern and more consistent temperature changes.

Infared satellite image of Rina

The storm still lacks an eye as of early Monday afternoon, a sign that while the storm is strengthening, it has the potential to become even stronger. Forecasts by the National Hurricane Center, keep the storm off the US coast and closer to Mexico and Cuba over the next few days.

Q: How cold will it get?

Right now most indications show we will be flirting with the 32 degree mark sometime in the WED to THUR timeframe, overnight. Highs will still likely reach the 40s or 50s.

Q: Will it snow?

It is not out of the question in some lake effect prone areas to the east of Cleveland or against eastern shore of Lake Michigan to see some of the first wet flakes of the year.

No need to panic about THIS type of snow just yet.

Q: Why are we expecting a cool down?

An area of low pressure will develop somewhere in the eastern Great Lakes, into the Northeast. This alone will drive colder, canadian air south into our area. In addition, the winds further north look to line up straight from the arctic circle as well. This would create the perfect scenario, (spring, winter, or fall) for much cooler temperatures.

Cold Air diving south next week (via the ECMWF european model)Surface weather chart for the middle of next week. High pressure west and low pressure each will funnel cold air south.

Surface weather chart for the middle of next week. High pressure west and low pressure each will funnel cold air south.

Q: So do I need get out my winter coats, boots, hats, and gloves!?

The winter coat, probably. But right now it appears highs should still rise into the 40s or even 50s during the day. So no polar bears will be roaming the streets. Yet.

Polar Bears Crystal, Marty and Nan at the Toledo Zoo will enjoy this weather!

Q: Why not just make a 14 day forecast if you can tell it will cool down so far ahead?

Typically, when such a large air mass is forecasted by the models to move south. (Or vis versa with a large warm-up) We can pick up on the large scale details quickly. However, when we make a forecast beyond 7-day extended forecasts we must keep in mind that even minor changes over the next few days can have big impacts 8,9 or 10 days down the road. That’s why right now we are keeping an eye on the very real possibility for below freezing temperatures next week but it is certainly not a slam dunk at this point. What we can say with more certainty is our time for back-to-back 80 degree days has passed for 2011.