Above average rainfall totals, below freezing overnight lows, and unseasonable changes in temperature… These things can sum up the month of October.

Always a very transitional month, this October has provided our region with LOTS of variety. After a wet September, October broke the pattern with .05” of rain on the first day of the month, then 10 straight days of sunshine and dry weather. Within those dry days, we saw temperatures jump way above average with 5 days in the 80s!

Once that was over, we skipped right over the 70s and landed in the 60s and 50s for the remainder of the month (save a few days in the upper 40s).

No worries, though! While we typically rely on cooler temperatures and less sunshine to help turn the color of the leaves, this year the process was delayed, but more vibrant that most years! Some significant rain showers blew through the region on the 19th (1.84”) and we saw temperatures dip below freezing on the 22nd.

No matter how you look at the development of the weather patterns this month, it still remains clear that things haven’t quite leveled out. Into November, we’ll look for a persistant cooling pattern and more consistent temperature changes.

It didn’t take this storm long to organize and become a hurricane. All of about 2 and a half days in fact. At 2pm the National Hurricane Center  upgraded the Tropical Storm to Hurricane status. Maximum sustained winds were found to be 75mph by hurricane hunter aircraft.

Infared satellite image of Rina

The storm still lacks an eye as of early Monday afternoon, a sign that while the storm is strengthening, it has the potential to become even stronger. Forecasts by the National Hurricane Center, keep the storm off the US coast and closer to Mexico and Cuba over the next few days.

So far high temperatures this month have been well above average, but, there are increasing signs that this will change significantly next week.

Q: How cold will it get?

Right now most indications show we will be flirting with the 32 degree mark sometime in the WED to THUR timeframe, overnight. Highs will still likely reach the 40s or 50s.

Q: Will it snow?

It is not out of the question in some lake effect prone areas to the east of Cleveland or against eastern shore of Lake Michigan to see some of the first wet flakes of the year.

No need to panic about THIS type of snow just yet.

Q: Why are we expecting a cool down?

An area of low pressure will develop somewhere in the eastern Great Lakes, into the Northeast. This alone will drive colder, canadian air south into our area. In addition, the winds further north look to line up straight from the arctic circle as well. This would create the perfect scenario, (spring, winter, or fall) for much cooler temperatures.

Cold Air diving south next week (via the ECMWF european model)Surface weather chart for the middle of next week. High pressure west and low pressure each will funnel cold air south.

Surface weather chart for the middle of next week. High pressure west and low pressure each will funnel cold air south.

Q: So do I need get out my winter coats, boots, hats, and gloves!?

The winter coat, probably. But right now it appears highs should still rise into the 40s or even 50s during the day. So no polar bears will be roaming the streets. Yet.

Polar Bears Crystal, Marty and Nan at the Toledo Zoo will enjoy this weather!

Q: Why not just make a 14 day forecast if you can tell it will cool down so far ahead?

Typically, when such a large air mass is forecasted by the models to move south. (Or vis versa with a large warm-up) We can pick up on the large scale details quickly. However, when we make a forecast beyond 7-day extended forecasts we must keep in mind that even minor changes over the next few days can have big impacts 8,9 or 10 days down the road. That’s why right now we are keeping an eye on the very real possibility for below freezing temperatures next week but it is certainly not a slam dunk at this point. What we can say with more certainty is our time for back-to-back 80 degree days has passed for 2011.

Accuweather has released their seasonal outlooks for this upcoming winter and it doesn’t look good. After a brief discussion with a few colleagues, I’ve found that typical winter weather for our region (SE Michigan/NW Ohio) can have a very wide range – spanning from snow showers in Hillsdale/Lenawee counties, to mixed precip. anywhere between Adrian and Perrysburg, and rain for folks south of Findlay. Of course this isn’t true for every winter weather event, but keeping that in mind, we can look at these images with a bit of speculation and local knowledge.

According to Accuweather, areas of lower Michigan, the entire Great Lakes, and especially in Chicago can expect to see a particularly harsh winter. Lucky for us, we fall within a region that is only occasionally touched by heavy lake effect events (notice the areas of light blue), however, while we may dodge some heavier snow, I don’t believe we can escape the cold.

Long range meteorologists are calling this an ‘exceptional’ winter, suggesting that some residents may pick up and move after the fact! All jokes aside, there is a certain amount of truth we can take from this forecast, while still being reasonable.

The presence of a La Niña weather pattern may also enhance the chance for some added severe weather. Earlier in the year, La Niña contributed to extreme weather around the globe, and more locally, the weather pattern helped provide extra snowfall during winter and springtime flooding. Now that La Niña has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean, it is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter, enhancing the chance for some similar events.

A wider view of the map shows the Dakotas and the Great Lakes region under the ‘Worst of winter cold & snow’. Yikes! The National Weather Service will release their seasonal outlook in mid-October.

Hello Irene!  The first hurricane of the Atlantic Basin has arrived.  With winds now at 75 mph it is expected to graze the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba before driving into the Bahamas en route to the Atlantic coast of Florida.  At this point there is a HIGH probability of a landfall at hurricane strength on the US mainland.  Here is the most recent satellite imagery:

Here is the latest hurricane track and position of Irene by 5 PM on Friday as a category 2 hurricane:



A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions occurred during May 2011 as indicated by generally small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niño index values showed near-average SSTs in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Notice the figure below the absence of the “below average” sea surface temperatures that would typically be associated with the La Nina regime.

The duration of this La Nina was just less than 12 months, which is on the low end of the “average” duration of a La Nina event.

CLICK HERE for a full discussion on the end to La Nina.

All time record flooding is ongoing on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers after a deluge of heavy and repeated rains the past 30 days. Several states have seen 15 to 20 inches or more of heavy rain in less than a month! Check out this picture of precipitation estimates over the past 30 days:

This has pushed many rivers to major flood stage, and in some cases shattering the all time record flood stages in well over 100 years of records. Cities and town have been completely inundated. Levees have been breached and hundreds upon hundreds of square miles have flooded. For additional details and specific river levels CLICK HERE.

***INFORMATION IS STILL BEING GATHERED BUT HERE IS A TIME LINE ON THE CONFIRMED TORNADOES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS SO FAR.***This information is also viewable on the storm chasing website http://www.convectiveaddiction.com

Week of April 18-24th:

Long and Medium range models begin to indicate that another

outbreak of severe weather is possible the following week. By this point April has

already broken all-time records for number of tornadoes.

APRIL 25th:

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma issues its first probability outlook

for a severe weather outbreak on April 27th.

Meanwhile a significant severe weather outbreak and heavy rain event in its own respect

Information Statement on the day.

APRIL 26th

5:02 AM: Birmingham, AL AFD (Area Forecast Discussion) mentions the likelihood for long tracked

tornadoes

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY

WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE…WHETHER IT IS ACROSS OUR

AREA OR TO OUR WEST. COULD BE A COMBINATION OF BOTH…BUT MOST

LIKELY LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE NORTH WHERE THE CAP

ERODES

QUICKER AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE

WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY…INCLUDING LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND

TORNADOES.

7:34AM: Severe weather threat across AR, OK, TX, LA for Tuesday increases to prompt

the SPC to issue a DAY 1 HIGH RISK.

12:30 PM: A very complicated and significant appearing weather situation is expected on

damage and tornadoes.

APRIL 27th

1:10 AM: The overall evolution of storms has become much clearer as short range

the Deep South. SPC upgrades parts of AL, MS, TN and GA to a HIGH RISK.

2:25 AM: The first tornado watch over Alabama is issued. It also includes parts of MS

and TN.

2:29 AM: Choctaw and Webster County MS EF-3 Tornado hits.

6:45 AM: Dekalb County AL Tornado reaches EF-4 strength.

8:10 AM: Second round of severe thunderstorms prompts another tornado watch over MS

and AL to be issued.

11:05 AM: PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Watch is issued over MS, LA and

This watch replaces parts of the tornado watch issued at 8:10.

1:39 PM: Lafayette Co. MS EF-3 Tornado begins.

1:45 PM: Second PDS Watch issued for AL, TN and MS. All probabilities on the watch

indicate >95% chance for significant severe weather in all categories. )To the authors knowledge that was the first time ever probabilities were listed that high.)

2:30 PM: EF-4 Philadephia, MS tornado touches down.

3:00 PM: Approximate time for first radar returns of Tuscaloosa/Birmingham Supercell.

3:04 PM: Chicksaw and Monroe Co. EF-3 Tornado strikes.

3:05 PM: Violent Hackleberg, AL EF-4 Tornado

Hackleburg, AL Jeep Wrangler Plant Destroyed

3:27 PM: Smith County, MS EF-3 touches down for 11 minutes.

3:35 PM: An amazing third PDS watch was issued for TN and NC.

3:44 PM: First EF-5 Tornado strikes Monroe Co. MS. Winds are estimated at 205MPH.

Damage Path through Smithville, MS

3:57 PM: Shotsville, AL EF-3 Tornado forms.

4:39 PM: Limestone and Madison Co. AL EF-4 Tornado begins.

Limestone County Tornado

4:53 PM: Tornado crosses into Franklin County AL and continues to produce EF-4 damage.

5:08 PM: Newton Co. EF-4 Tornado strikes.

5:10 PM: Haleyville, AL EF-3 Tornado forms.

5:30 PM: Sawyerville/Eoline EF-3 Tornado beings at least 71 mile track.

5:35 PM: EF-3 Tornado crosses AL into GA in Dade County.

5:42 PM: Long lived tornado forms near Raleigh, MS.

Long lived Raleigh, MS tornado near Clinton, AL

5:47 PM: Tornado Warning issued for Tuscaloosa, AL for storm which would eventually

strike the town.

6:08 PM: Tornado enters Tuscaloosa city limits.

6:10 PM: Violent Tornado strikes near the University of Alabama campus.

6:23 PM: Argo, AL Violent EF-4 touches down. Remains on the ground through the GA State line (72 miles).

6:38 PM: Tornado Emergency issued for Birmingham, AL.

6:50 PM: As tornadic supercells push east and fourth PDS watch is issued for AL, GA,

TN, SC, and NC.

7:14 PM: Long tracked Raleigh, MS tornado crosses from MS into AL. It has already been on the ground for 65 miles.

7:50 PM: Argo Tornado crosses from AL into GA. While not as strong, it remains on the ground for 3 more miles.

8:15 PM: Catoosa, GA EF-4 Tornado touches down.

8:29 PM: EF-4 Tornado is on-going in Hamilton Co. TN

9:20 PM: EF-3 tornado develops in Bartow county GA and travels through Cherokee and

Pickens counties.

9:40 PM: Storms along the dry line are still cause for concern, prompting another series

of tornado watches in AL/MS/GA

10:18 PM: Tuscaloosa storm looses supercell characteristics over North Carolina.

APRIL 28th

12:03 AM: Meriwether County, GA EF-3 tornado touches down.

12:38 AM: EF-3 tornado forms in Pike County GA and moves through Lamar, Monroe

and Butts County.

3:15 PM: The last tornado watch of the outbreak is issued.

Pics Courtesy: Jackson Weather Examiner, The Decatur Daily

The very strong easterly winds have been creating a problem for those who live near the lake.  These strong winds are pushing the water towards the western shoreline, causing waves over 6 feet high.  Lake levels have risen quite a bit, so those waves are riding on top of the higher water.  (Lake levels in the eastern parts of Lake Erie have dropped — the winds are literally pushing the water from one side of the lake to the other).

Waves have been crashing against breakwalls, and some of the water may jump over.  There is the threat of some water hitting roadways near the lakeshore.

Monroe county in Michigan has issued a coastal flood warning.  More details HERE.

The situation will improve Saturday as winds become southwesterly.  Winds will be primarily westerly on Sunday, so this will slosh the water back eastward to the other side of the lake.  Our lake levels will drop quite a bit from their current state.

From Monday at noon, showing snow on the ground in SE Michigan, Ice on Lake Erie and high thin clouds over northwest Ohio.