StormTrack Blog

Sometime this afternoon, after further aircraft reconnaissance missions through the circulation of Katia, it will likely be determined that hurricane force winds have been established.  This will make for the 2nd hurricane of the season.

Katia will likely intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane by this weekend, but is expected to remain mainly over water with very minimal impacts through the weekend.  Atmospheric steering currents will likely bear a re-curving effect on this storm directing it northward into the Atlantic.  (*Note this steering current is often due to a Atlantic Subtropical high pressure system, or a Bermuda high)  At this point concern for a landfall on the US coastline appears to be low. 

On the other hand, computer models indicate tropical wave over the Gulf of Mexico may have a more immediate effect on the United States.  Pictured below is the GFS forecast model valid Sunday afternoon.  Notice the tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico.

Then Tropical Storm Irene as the eye passes over New York City

As of 11am Monday morning, Irene is no longer considered a tropical system. Although the storm produced maximum wind gusts to 115mph in parts of North Carolinas shore, the system will long be remembered for the historic flooding.

North Carolina Wind Gusts

Pennsylvania Wind Gusts

New York Wind Gusts

New England Wind Gusts

An example of the extreme flooding occuring in New England, in particular Vermont, as a result of heavy rains from Irene.

<iframe width=”420″ height=”345″ src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/FRwdQYjC_OI” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen></iframe>

All is quiet now over the Atlantic, right? Not even close.
While parts of New England was being flooded and battered by Irene, Tropical Storm Jose formed. You might have asked, ‘why haven’t I heard about Jose?’.  The answer is simple. It was a short lived storm which developed and quickly died out in a matter of 2 days.

Monday morning satellite picture. I = Irene, J = Jose. Both are no longer tropical systems.

As if that wasn’t enough, another tropical system is on the verge of being named. As it stands right now Tropical Depression 12 only bosts winds of 35 mph but is expected to strengthen to Hurricane status by weeks end.  It would earn the name Katia, replacing Katrina in the hurricane name rotation (Katrina was retired after 2005). As you can see from the map below, this storm has over 2 weeks before it would even be within range of striking the US.

Soon to be Katia's projected path, per the NHC.

 You get the scope of how far away Tropical Depression 12 is from the United States when you look at the satellite view. Only a stones throw from Africa.

Predictions before the hurricane season said this would be an active year….so far that has been the case.

“The category of the storm does not tell the whole story,” FEMA Director, Craig Fugate, reminds folks. Major concerns surrounding Irene are not in intensity nor organization — they are flooding, storm surges, and heavy downpours.

As Irene heads right for NYC, street level waters rise, and areas of the heavily populated city become unrecognizable under a sea of flood water. Still categorized as a Category 1 Hurricane, Irene is carving a path of destruction up the coast, and authorities are having some of their worst fears confirmed.

The storm’s landfall is expected midday in NYC Sunday. Reports from yesterday recorded anywhere from 12-24” of rain in areas of North Carolina, and an estimated 10” in Delaware. Irene is still pulling significant moisture from the ocean, so similar rain levels can be expected in the New Englad states for the second half of the weekend.

It has been 1077 days since a hurricane has made landfall in the United States. The last cyclone to hit the U.S. was hurricane Ike on September 13, 2008. After nearly three years, we’ll reset that number back to zero today.

Within the next 24 hours Irene’s extreme impact will be felt across North Carolina.  She is now expected to make landfall as a strong category 2 hurricane.  A slight decrease in the intensity is due to upper level shear it is battling just off the eastern seaboard.  This shear and the slightly weaker projection is a sliver of good news in an otherwise dire situation that still exists.  Severe coastal flooding and erosion, inland flooding and damaging winds are still all major hazards through the weekend all along the east coast.

The second landfall is still expected through the day Sunday on the Island of Long Island.  This could be the strongest hurricane to hit Long Island since Hurricane Gloria in 1985. 

Updated Hurricane Track:

:

Evacuations have begun on a tiny barrier island off North Carolina early Wednesday in a test of whether people in the
crosshairs of the first serious hurricane along the East Coast in years will heed orders to get out of the way.

Irene is centered over the Bahamas Wednesday and is moving west-northwest near 12 mph.

Hurricane Irene is expected to become a major category 3 hurricane by this evening as it roars toward the Bahamas.  The eastward shift in the hurricane path and computer models continue to be a trend and it is something I’ll continue to monitor this week. 

(Enhanced IR Satellite with forecast path and various model projections)

All major cities on the East Coast are on high alert for impacts from this hurricane which include high surf, heavy rains, storm surge with inland flooding and strong winds.

Hello Irene!  The first hurricane of the Atlantic Basin has arrived.  With winds now at 75 mph it is expected to graze the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba before driving into the Bahamas en route to the Atlantic coast of Florida.  At this point there is a HIGH probability of a landfall at hurricane strength on the US mainland.  Here is the most recent satellite imagery:

Here is the latest hurricane track and position of Irene by 5 PM on Friday as a category 2 hurricane:



 A projection of Irene’s track have it moving directly through Puerto Rico Sunday, into Cuba Wenesday, and into the southern coast of Florida by Friday.