• 1887 — 19 (Would-be) named storms — They hadn’t start naming storms yet back then — 12 Hurricanes
• 1933 — 21 (Would-be) named storms — 10 Hurricanes
• 1936 — 16 (Would-be) named storms — 7 Hurricanes
• 1969 — 18 named storms — 12 Hurricanes *Including Camille
• 1995 — 19 named storms — 11 Hurricanes *Including Felix and Opal
• 2000 — 15 named storms — 8 Hurricanes
• 2001 — 15 named storms — 9 Hurricanes
• 2003 — 16 named storms — 7 Hurricanes *Including Isabel
• 2004 — 15 named storms — 9 Hurricanes *Including Charley, Frances and Ivan
• 2005 — 28! named storms — 15! Hurricanes *Including Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma
• 2007 — 15 named storms — 7 Hurricanes *Including Dean and Felix
• 2008 — 16 named storms — 9 Hurricanes *Including Gustav and Ike
• 2010 — 19 named storms — 12 Hurricanes

And now, 2011. Which includes 15 named storms and 3 Hurricanes, including Irene and Katia.

The most active season on the list is 2005 where from JUNE 8th all the way to JANUARY 7th, 28 named storms, 15 Hurricanes, and 4 Category 5 Hurricanes tore through the Atlantic.

Hurricane season typically comes to an end in November.

After a rather inactive stretch in the tropics, new storms have begun to crop up.
Tropical Storm Ophelia is moving through the Atlantic, while Hurricane Hilary tracks near Mexico in the Eastern Pacific.

As of 5pm, Thursday evening, Ophelia has max sustained winds of 65mph, just shy of hurricane status (74+mph winds) and is moving west at 13mph. As you can see from the National Hurricane Center’s projections, Ophelia is expected to move inward, then track east and back out to sea.

Hurricane Hilary currently has sustained winds of 105mph.

Currently a Category 2 hurricane, the storm is moving just along the coast, tracking westward at 10mph. While Hilary is likely to skim the coast with some rain and gusty winds, it’s not expected to make landfall.

After yesterday’s models were split as to whether or not the track of Tropical Storm Nate would bring it up into the Gulf Coast, or NW into Mexico, a unanimous decision seems to have been made.

Notice the similarities in model projections for Nate, which have the Tropical Storm moving into the Mexican coast by early Monday morning. Right now, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coastal region from Chilitepec to Celestun. Nate’s winds are near 65mph with a relatively stationary motion

As discussed by Ryan, several areas of concern have now developed into noteable Tropical Storms set to make landfall.

After reaching Category 4 status earlier this week, Hurricane Katia is no longer being categorized as a Major Hurricane. As of 5am Thursday morning, Katia had sustained winds of 90mph (the storm would need 110+ for it to be considered a Major Hurricane) and is tracking Northward at 14mph. Early tracks planned for Katia to have some sort of impact on the East Coast, but as things are constantly changing in the Gulf, Katia’s path has taken a turn, so to speak, for the better.

A rare, but reassuring occurance… ALL models agree that Katia will now TURN back out towards the Atlantic Ocean, leaving the United States unscathed by its fury.

Alternately, it looks as though TS Maria as well as TS Nate will have coastal impacts, but not initially on the US.

Moving West at a quick pace of 23mph, Tropical Storm Maria is packing sustained winds of 50mph. Projections for the storm have Maria reaching the eastern Caribbean islands within the next 48 hours. As of 5am Thursday, forecasters say Maria has a rather disorganized formation, and may not band together in time to make a large impact.

Finally, a trapped and slow moving TS Nate is projected to make landfall in Mexico between Monday and Tuesday of next week. With sustained winds of 45mph, Tropical Storm Nate is only moving at 1mph to the East, so it still has a lot of time and resources to tap into (being centered over the Gulf of Mexico) to organize and gain a bit of power.

In a year that has already seen 12 named storms, the Atlantic basin looks to be just now reaching its stride. Yesterday, Hurricane Katia reached Category 4 status with sustained winds of 135 mph. Making it the strongest storm so far in the 2011 year.

Hurricane Katia forecasted path

In additon to Katia, the National Hurricane Center is investigating at least 3 more areas for possible development in the next 48 hours.

Red Circle will likely become the next tropical storm by WED

Investigation area, near the Cape Verde Islands

As a testiment to just how far long-range tropical forecasts are coming, take a look at the official National Hurricane Center forecasts from earlier this year:

The conditions expected this year have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the 2011 season could see activity comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:

• 12-18 Named Storms,
• 6-10 Hurricanes
• 3-6 Major Hurricanes
• An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median.

Enough model uncertainty still exists so it remains a “close call” but all indications point toward a sharp turn in Hurricane Katia by Thursday morning.  This should steer the then major hurricane back out to the Atlantic Ocean avoiding any significant impact on the US coastline.

Current Satellite Imagery:

Latest forecast path:

Check back for the latest updates through the week!

Is it just me or does Katia seem to have a hard time making up her mind?

From Tropical Storm to Hurricane BACK to Tropical Storm, and as of 7am Sunday morning, Katia is now a Hurricane once again. I guess that’s the problem when sustained winds linger right around 70-75mph (the cutoff for a hurricane strength storm is 74+). Even so, as the storm progresses at 12mph to the NW, questions are being raised as to when and IF Katia will affect the US.

Current projections for the storm’s path have Katia moving just south of Bremuda Wednesday and towards the East Coast next weekend.

In the Gulf of Mexico, TS Lee is proving that being a Tropical Storm doesn’t mean you can’t cause major damage. The relentless storm has been hovering over the Gulf coast for days now, dropping inches upon inches of rain and requiring a certain amount of alertness from local authorities. Since Friday, over 90 Tornado Warnings have been issued because of Lee and its components.

Because TS Lee is only moving NE at 3mph, damages caused by the storm have yet to be surveyed because areas under its direct impact are still feeling the wrath of the storm. For now, tens of thousands of residents are without power, coastal regions are experiencing massive flooding and at least ten confirmed tornadoes have touched down.

After being downgraded to a Tropical Storm yesterday, Katia has regained hurricane strength over the Atlantic with sustained winds of 75mph.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #13 has been named and upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee. As of 4pm Lee had 45 mph sustained winds and was moving at a painstakingly slow pace, going north at 2 miles per hour.

Both Katia and Lee have sparked discussions regarding the potential track and strength of each, especially when (and in Katia’s case, IF) they hit the coast.

Preparations continue through the Gulf Coast region and similar to Hurricane Irene, massive flooding is a number one concern for these residents. Mississippi’s governor, Haley Barbour, has declared a state of emergency in seven counties on or near the coast, saying the storm is expected to cause tremendous flooding over the holiday weekend.

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 11am, hurricane Katia has max sustained winds of 75 mph. It maintains its Category 1 hurricane status as it continues to move westerly at 18mph.

Projections for the storm have Katia continuing to move west with winds increasing to 115mph with gusts of nearly 140 mph by 8am sunday.

Interestingly enough, if the name ‘Katrina’ hadn’t been retired back in 2006 after the massive 2005 hurricane rocked New Orleans, Katia would be Katrina — the name Katia replaced Katrina on the 6-year rotating list of names maintained and updated by WMO.

Meanwhile, activity continues to spark the formation of Tropical Storm (to be) Lee in the Gulf of Mexico. Although the storm hasn’t gained enough wind speed or organization to be categorized as a tropical storm yet, forecasters say it’s likely to happen within the next 24 to 48 hours.

To officially be classified as a Tropical Depression, the organized system of clouds and thunderstorms must have a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Once the winds surpass that level, the storm is upgraded to a Tropical Storm (39-73mph), and finally a hurricane once winds are above 73 mph.

And in addition to all of that, there is a 50% chance of Tropical Cyclone development just north of Bremuda! What an active week. We’ll keep you posted

Okay, so maybe it shouldn’t be referred to as the ‘Hall of Fame’, but this list does consist of some very well known storms.
Not even a week after Irene slid up the East Coast, authorities are now talking about retiring the hurricane’s name so another ‘Irene’ may never exist.

Since the World Meteorological Organization began retiring hurricane names in 1954, 75 names have been permanently removed from the rotating lists of names for Atlantic Ocean hurricanes.

As expected, some of these names are truly historical. Who could forget Katrina? Andrew? Camile? These three names, among several others are no longer part of the alphabetical lists of storm names that rotate every six years for the Atlantic Ocean region because of the destruction they caused.

In the case of Irene, WMO officials say it’s too early to say whether or not the name ’Irene’ will be retired. A decision will be made in an annual meeting next March to review the year’s previous hurricane season (which runs from June 1-Nov 30).

The decision to retire a name is made based on whether or not the hurricane in question resulted in numerous deaths or costly damage so much so that using the name to label a future storm would be considered insensitive to those greatly affected by the previous one.

Irene, for example, made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane and caused at least 41 deaths (the count may still rise as missing persons are accounted for) and billions of dollars in damage.

Whether the name is retired or not, i think everyone was happy to say “Good Night, Irene” once the storm finally took itself out of commission.