StormTrack Blog

A storm system will track through the area Tuesday into very early Wednesday.  Rainfall amounts from this should be 0.10″ to around 0.25″.  Some slightly higher totals are possible to the far south and southeast (Ada, Kenton, Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus).

Showers will exit around daybreak Wednesday, followed by a decrease in clouds.  A southwesterly wind in the afternoon will boost temps into the mid 50s.

The warmest air of the year, and since last November, arrives Thursday with highs in the low/mid 60s.  A cold front will gradually slide through the area on Friday, bringing some showers with it.

Occasional rain will move through the area through Saturday evening.  Thunderstorms will provide localized heavier downpours tonight into Saturday morning.

Rain should begin to taper a bit towards evening Saturday.  As colder air surges into the area, the remaining moisture may fall as some light snow later Saturday evening and Saturday night.  This activity should exit around daybreak Sunday.

Updated computer model runs have been all in the 1.00 to 2.50″ range, with the majority averaging around 1.25 to 1.50″.   Unfortunately, higher numbers (1.50-2.50″) are targeting the southern half of our Ohio counties.

Flood watch continues until Sunday morning.

A little scattered light rain combined with temps below 32° created an icy mess this morning.  Areas well south of Bowling Green stayed above freezing, but extreme northern Ohio and southeastern Michigan did not.

Numerous accidents occurred during the predawn hours, including jack-knifed tractor trailers, which shut down parts of I-75.

Advisories are in effect until late morning for Monroe, Lucas, Wood, Ottawa & Sandusky counties.

Another moderate to heavy rain event is on the way.

Friday will feature occasional showers during the day.  The main storm system arrives for Saturday, bringing some heavy rain and thunderstorms with it.

Rain should taper Sunday morning.  As colder air arrives, a few snow showers are possible.

An inch of rain or more is a good bet.  Computer model forecasts for the Friday through Sunday AM time frame range from 0.75″ to 3.00″.  However, most of the models are zeroing in around 1″ accumulation.  The average amongst all the models is around 1.18″.

After a light snowfall Saturday, temperatures will warm up Sunday into Monday along with some rain arriving.  Rainfall of possibly 1″ combined with melting snow (the current snow pack contains 0.7″ of water) could create some problems on area rivers next week.

Here are links to the latest river levels and forecasts:

Northwest Ohio River Levels

Northwest Ohio (closer to Indiana border)

Southeast Michigan

10 am update:

Snow will continue tapering off.  Winds will still gust over 30 mph into early afternoon.  Many of the advisories/warnings have expired or been cancelled, the remaining counties will see the winter storm warning end by 4 pm.

8:30 am update:

Western edge of the snow is now near the OH/IN border.  This will continue chugging eastward around 30 mph, so look for snow to taper off (west to east) over the next few hours.  Additional accumulations will not be too much, but winds will continue to blow and drift the snow through midday and early afternoon.

6 am Friday update:

Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, and taper off between 9 a.m. and noon.  Reports of thundersnow have occurred south of Findlay.  In thundersnow, 2-3″ of accumulation per hour are possible.

The majority of the viewing area will have final accumulations in the 5-9″ range.  There could be some spots in northern Hillsdale & Lenawee counties that get slightly less, and areas near & south of Findlay could exceed 10″ in spots — especially where the thundersnow occurs.

A winter storm warning continues for all of northwest Ohio, and a winter weather advisory continues for southern Michigan.

Winds will continue at 15-25 mph from the north with occasional gusts near or exceeding 35 mph.  This will cause blowing and drifting snow.  Winds will subside slightly by midday at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.  By late afternoon, winds will be in the 5-15 mph range, and then drop to near calm tonight.

Check out our news page at www.wtol.com for the latest closings, delays and snow emergency levels.

Freezing rain has brought most areas an icy Monday morning. Steady, and at times moderate freezing rain across southern michigan and extreme northern Ohio resulted in 1/4″ to 1/2″ of ice accumulations from midday Sunday into this morning.

It is still expected that a light wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will linger through the rest of the morning. Snow with a chance of a mix south of Toledo will redevelop this afternoon and into the evening tonight. All precipitation should turn entirely back to snow after dark tonight. Bursts of moderate and even heavy snow possible tonight which may result in 3-5 inches of snow by very early tomorrow morning. Outside of a few flurries Tuesday morning, the day will gradually turn partly sunny.

Here’s a map of expected snow accumulations this afternoon through tonight:

Overnight Update:  Scattered light rain or isolated freezing rain will be possible well south of the turnpike.  Occasional freezing rain (with some snow in spots) will continue across northern sections with additional ice accumulation.

9pm:  Lucas county has been added to the Winter Storm Warning due to the icy conditions.

7pm:  we have received official National Weather Service spotter reports of a tenth to a quarter inch ice accumulation across parts of southern Michigan.

EVENING UPDATE:

There will be a lull in the precip across NW Ohio at times this evening.  Snow has changed to freezing rain in many locations.  Temps will rise a slight amount later this evening, allowing some plain rain across NW Ohio and freezing rain in SE Michigan & near the state line.  Ice accumulation will be a real problem for the northern sections of our viewing area.

This rain will turn back into a mix around daybreak, then back to light snow.  There will be a break in the precip during the day.  Another system will spread another round of snow in late in the day into the night.  A daytime accumulation of 1-2″ is possible, with additional accumulations Monday night.

Morning post:

Some snow, or a mix of sleet and snow, will move into the area late this morning into early this afternoon.  A light accumulation of snow and sleet is possible.  The precip will change to freezing rain during the afternoon, and a glaze of ice is likely–especially the northern half of the area.

The precip will turn to non-freezing rain as temps hit the mid 30s by late afternoon or early evening.  Southern Michigan and areas near the state border could see the freezing rain last into the mid/late evening.

We’ll have periods of steadier rain overnight with lows just above freezing.  The rain will turn more scattered after daybreak, with colder air returning.  A mix or snow will be around in the morning to midday.

A winter storm warning is in effect for Fulton, Hillsdale, Lenawee, Monroe & Williams counties.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for most everywhere else.

Our air has been coming in from the northwest, allowing the bitter arctic air of Canada to continously keep things frigid.  However, an overall pattern change will occur in the next few days, allowing temperatures to surge back above normal by Sunday.

The air flow will come in from the west, allowing the milder Pacific air to be more of an influence on our temperatures.

Normal high for this point of the month is in the upper 30s.

After an accumulating snow today, more is on the way for late Sunday into Monday morning.

Following that will be another surge of arctic air, keeping highs in the teens.  Lows Wednesday & Thursday morning could dip below zero.  Another shot of arctic air will reinforce the chill Thursday through Friday morning.

However….it looks like there will be a decent jump in temps for next weekend.  Highs will return above normal (and above freezing).