Maybe the weather is reacting to the recent stock market changes? Either way, we’re in store for some significant changes around the region.

Since the beginning of August, temperatures have already varied drastically from July’s. A high of only 82 degrees Thursday felt seasonable, but cool in comparison to recent highs in the 90s (the last time we saw a temperature of 82 degress was July 13th!).

Even my apartment pool looked deserted because people didn’t want to swim in 80 degree weather! C’est La Vie, I say! More room for me

Now as we move into this weekend, temperatures rise back into the upper 80s, and that warm weather is accompanied by a chance of some thunderstorms. For Saturday, showers are likely throughout the afternoon and early evening hours. Then, Sunday, the exact timing is still unknown, there is definitely a chance of showers, with a risk of some severe weather in the form of gusty winds and hail at times as well.

Beyond that, we’re looking at temperatures in the LOW 80s! ::Gasp:: and less humidity. Hmm. I think it’s about time we get back to normal around here. Don’t you?

Things are shaping up to be beautiful outside this weekend. Temperatures in the 90s are warm, no doubt, but with less humidity in the forecast, i think it’s safe to say people are much more comfortable.

Last week, with our summer heat wave and temperatures in the 90s, heat indicies flew into the triple digits, rendering some people useless without AC (myself being one of them!). Now as we approach August, July’s scorching hot temperatures are behind us, and hopefully we can make a recovery into near average temperatures once again. For now, however, we’re looking at at least the upper 80s if not low 90s for the first week of the new month.

Speaking of July’s heat… We have secured the record for second hottest July on the books, but it looks unlikely now that temperatures will suffice for us to knock off the first place leader and have the hottest July ever recorded.

For now, stay cool and enjoy the last day of the second hottest July!

Not that i’m living under a rock, but i made the realization this afternoon that in just three short days, we’ll be saying ‘Good-Bye July, Hello August!’

So after a month of record breaking heat and rain, i think we’d all agree that August can be as tame as it wants and no one will complain. A nice fellow called back to the Weather Center this morning asking about the overall trend and how things will change as the rest of the summer progresses, so i did a little research and found some answers.

Last year, August only saw 5 days in the 90s. So far this July, we’ve had 18!

The hottest day last August was the 29th with a temperature of 93 degrees. (The coolest was 8/27; 49°). This July, we’ve had temperatures exceed 100° once and reach the upper 90s and handful of times.

We saw 7 instances of rain last August, none of which exceeded an inch. This July we’ve had 6 days of rain, the most occuring on the 22nd with 1.26 inches in less than 24 hours.

Overall, records set for the month of August are as follows:

Highest temperature for the month was recorded in 1918. It was 103 degrees.

Lowest? 39° in 1964.

Now, according to the Climate Prediction Center Outlook, a study issued this month says the combined climate of August/September/October is likely to be slightly above average. Studies indicate this fall may start late, prolonging warmer temperatures from July into August, and maybe even breaking some records along the way.

Of course this is all preliminary data, but it’s interesting to read up on some of these studies and then watch how things unfold. In my opinion, this July has set us up for an interesting August. July’s big heat, humidity, and dry/wet spells may lead us into another summer month with more of the same.

I guess we’ll all just have to wait and see!

Hot, Hazy, Humid… And now rainy too!

After much discussion with fellow Meteorologist Ryan Wichman, we’ve come to the agreement that today’s temperatures need to be adjusted slightly. With convection spreading in and around our area, the chance of storms is dominant throughout the day today, as well as tomorrow. Keeping that in mind, temperatures yesterday only reached 84 degrees. By 11AM today, temperatures had reached 82 degrees already, so i’m confident in putting 88 for today’s high, while maintaining the chance of showers.

It’s common practice to adjust forecasts based on previous data, but as Chief Meteorologist Robert Shiels would say, each forecast is it’s own independent story. For that reason, i’m looking at today’s data with fresh eyes, and forgetting why and how things developed the way they did yesterday.

At the very least, we’ll expect plenty of clouds and rain today. Non-severe showers may provide us with heavy rain at times (Iowa received over 14” in less than 24 hours!), but besides a little extra water on the ground, it doesn’t raise much reason for concern.

We’ll leave the haze behind us this weekend. As a high pressure system builds into the area, Saturday and Sunday both look picture perfect with temperatures near 90 and much drier weather.

For now, TGIT. Enjoy your day

The record heat wave has come to and end…for now at least! More on when it will return in just a minute. We did rack up 9 consecutive days of 90° or warmer that covered a stretch from Saturday July 16th through Sunday July 24th. While it was a persistent and impressive heat wave it did fall 2 days short of a tie for 11 consecutive days at 90° or warmer in August of 1959.

What remains amazing is that the total 90° days this month now stands at 17 (with several more in the forecast!). This means that roughly 70% of days so far this month have been 90° or warmer! In fact, July of 2011 will likely be one of the warmest on record.

1. 79.0 1921
78.9 2011* unofficial
2. 78.6 1916
3. 78.3 1955
4. 77.8 1931
5. 77.6 2002
6. 77.6 1949
7. 77.6 1935
8. 77.5 1901
9. 77.4 1934
10. 77.3 1999

We currently rank 2nd on the list for all time warmest July’s and I expect more heat is in store later this week. Here’s why. The recent heat wave has not “moved on” it has only been suppressed back south for a short time. The dominant ridge anchored over the southern plains and the southeast will hold its ground sending the jet stream back north into Canada allowing a hot, humid zonal flow in the atmosphere (Generally a west to east flow). This should bring temperatures back into the 90s by Wednesday and remain there until at least the beginning of the weekend.

Highs today will soar into record highs for many areas in the Great Lakes Region. An impressive ridge in the jet stream has brought a persistent heat and muggy conditions across much of the United States. The weak atmospheric flow has allowed this pattern not only to develop, but intensify and remain anchored in place.

Slowly this ridge shifts the heat to the east, but until then dangerous heat will remain for our area through Friday. Up to this point in the month, the average temperature has been 77.8 degrees which is 4.8 degrees above normal. The number of 90 degree days or warmer continue to stack up, so far 14 days have been recorded so far! Stay Cool!

This past Memorial Day was the first day this season in which we officially touched on 90 degrees at Toledo Express Airport. Ready for and encore? More hot and sticky weather will be around for today with highs in the lower 90s. While this is some intense heat for late May, it is expected to remain below record high levels.

One good thing about the frequent rain this weekend is that the pollen count is dropping.  After staying at high levels much of this past week, occasional showers will lower it into the moderate range today.  A cooler, wetter pattern for Sunday will allow the pollen levels to drop into the low category.

As things dry out a bit during the coming week, the pollen levels will begin to climb again.

A slow-moving upper level storm system will inch across the area over the weekend into Monday.  This will keep occasional rain and thunderstorms around during that entire period.  Once the low moves south of the area on Saturday, the thunder chances will diminish and the temperatures will turn a lot cooler.  A persistent northeasterly wind flow off the lake will limit temperatures, and some areas will not even break 60° on Sunday.

This slow-moving storm has the potential to accumulate a general 1 to 2″ of rain by midday Monday.  However, some isolated storms could produce an inch or more of rain per hour as they travel around 20 mph today.

A series of thunderstorms dumped heavy rainfall over the southern sections of our viewing area overnight.   From around midnight through 5 a.m., heavy rain fell over much of Putnam, Allen & Hardin counties. 

Our StormTrack 11 doppler estimates that a few spots received between 3 and 6 inches of rain.  You can see in the snapshot below, a bulls-eye of orange stretches across eastern Allen and western Hardin county, where isolated 6″+ amounts occurred.

This heavy rainfall was the result of something called “training”.  It is when waves of thunderstorms move over the same area repeatedly — like train cars on a track passing the same area over and over.  Many flash flood events occur from this phenomenon.

Flooding causes the most severe weather deaths, and many of those deaths result in people staying in their cars.  The National Weather Service has a flood safety slogan called “Turn Around, Don’t Drown”.  Flood water can sometimes wash away a road, so the water may be a lot deeper than you think.  About one foot of water can make about 1,500 pounds buoyant, so a couple feet of water will float most cars.

Flood deaths also are a result from people in a low-lying area, like a bridge underpass, that gets inundated with water in a short period of time.  The bottom line is, when very heavy rain occurs, being in a car is not a very safe place to be.