The milder temps as of late have allowed much of the snow cover to melt and seep into the soil.  Area rivers which were ice-covered in recent weeks have melted quite a bit.

Rainfall amounts over the next few days could reach 1 to 2 inches through Sunday.  Some isolated higher amounts are possible.

Thunderstorms are possible Friday with isolated heavier downpours.

All of the above factors combined could produce some flooding in some areas.  A flood warning is in effect for the Tiffin River in northwest Ohio.  See our main weather page for all the current advisories.

Changes since the satellite picture from Thursday (shown below)…lake ice has broken up quite a bit, and more brown areas of land indicate dwindling snow cover.

The combination of warm temps and winds pushing offshore by Sunday will create the potential for ice floes.  This will be a very dangerous weekend, and the Coast Guard and local law enforcement officials are urging people to stay off the ice.  The main section of ice in the southwestern area of the lake has the potential to break away and drift northward towards Canada.

In addition to the potential for the entire ice mass to move will be individual cracks and separations within that main area.

Essentially, conditions are ideal this weekend for a major change in the lake’s surface.  Anyone on the ice this weekend risks being stranded on a chunk of ice, or falling into the lake through weak ice.

Wednesday marked the 27th straight day of snow on the ground.

Snow cover of at least one inch has been reported at Toledo Express Airport since February 5th.

Unlike the slushy snow from Sunday night’s storm, this snow event will feature the drier, fluffier snow.  Winds today will be 15-25 mph with some gusts exceeding 30 mph.  These northwesterly winds will blow and drift the snow a lot.

Winds will relax a bit tonight to the 8-18 mph range, and then 5-15 mph Saturday.

In addition to reduced visibility (and getting pelted with snow while you are outside), the winds will cause cleared areas to get covered again by the drifted snow.  Plus, it will not be fun if you are trying to use a snow blower while walking in a northerly direction.

We always welcome snowfall reports.  Please check out our previous post on how to take an accurate snow measurement.  With all of the blowing and drifting, it will be quite difficult to get a perfect measurement.

While this last storm produced over 8″ of snow in some of our Michigan cities, we had about 2 to 3″ of accumulation in Toledo.

When we have temps near 30°, we normally get 1″ of water from 10″ inches of snow.  Recent snowfalls occurred when temps were in the low/mid 20s, which yielded 15 to 20″ of snow from 1″ of water.  So, if a storm brought about .40″ of water with it, the snow fluffed up to 6 to 8″ of accumulation.

The snow from Sunday night and Monday happened with temps in the low and mid 30s.  The snow was very wet, and it worked out to only 5″ of snow from 1″ of water.

Toledo Express Airport recorded 1″ of snow late Sunday and 1.5″ of snow Monday.  The storm snow total worked out to 2.5″, and the liquid in the snow was almost 1/2″.

The monthly snow total for Toledo is 18.8″, which is 12.1″ above normal.  The winter total is 33.8″, which is 5.2″ above normal.

Midday post:

Precip will continue to turn more scattered and spotty this afternoon.  Areas of fog and drizzle/flurries will be around.  Some areas in southern Michigan have already reported snow totals of over 6″.

5 a.m. post:

An area of low pressure will track through the area just to our south.  Precipitation will be steady at times this morning, and then taper off early this afternoon.  As the storm exits, some colder air will change leftover precip back to some snow showers.

Precipitation across southeast Michigan will be snow with some wintry mix at times.  Finalized storm totals by the end of today will be 5 to 8″ in most spots with some areas of 9 to 10″.

Northwest Ohio will see a mix of snow, sleet and rain as temps hover just above freezing.

Areas well east of I-75 and points south of Toledo will see primarily rain.

The wintry mess is spreading across the area tonight.  Here is the latest thinking on where the snow, rain, freezing rain and sleet will fall and how much. 

Snow accumulations across southern Michigan will be in the 3-6″ range

Snow accumulations across far northern Ohio will be in the 1-3″ range with some ice accumulations

No snow accumulations to the south with mainly rain expected, but a wintry mix for a period can be expected.

A winter storm will impact the area on Monday bringing a variety of weather.  A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain are all likely on Monday.  However, actual weather conditions will vary significantly with this storm system depending on how far north or south you are within the viewing area.   Here is the latest map of what the predominant precipitation type on Monday:

Lower Michigan:  Mainly a wet heavy snow.  Several inches of accumulation possible.  Sleet or freezing rain may briefly mix in.

Northern Ohio Counties:  A few hours of snow early overnight Sunday, then mixing with sleet and freezing rain for a good portion of the day.  Precipitation may briefly change to rain in the afternoon before changing back over to all snow Monday night.  Snow accumulations will be limited due to the sleet and freezing rain.

Southern Ohio Counties:  Some brief snow, but mainly freezing rain early Monday morning.  Changing over to all rain showers by the afternoon.  No snow accumulations expected.