Favorable atmospheric dynamics are lining up for strong and severe thunderstorms toward the evening hours tonight.  Our entire area is under a slight risk for severe weather which would include large hail, damaging winds and possibly isolated tornadoes. 

Forecast Discussion: (Because you asked…)

Potent upper level shortwave and eventual closed low will work into the Great Lakes region sweeping a cold front across the area late tonight.  An increase in the 500 mb winds (~50kts) will provide ample shear for severe thunderstorms and isolated supercell storms.  Convection will be aided by moist and unstable atmosphere that will provide CAPE values (a common measure of instability) in excess of 4,000 j/kg.  This highly unstable atmosphere set off by an advancing cold front and moderate shear will likely allow for the formation of an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) possibly in the form of discrete supercells initially followed by a squall line across most, if not all of our area.   

The timing on the storm will be after 5 PM, as a cap in the atmosphere is expected to hold until then.  Initial supercell thunderstorms would be the most likely culprit of an isolated tornado with the evolution of this event focusing more on damaging winds and large hail as the evening progresses.   Stay tuned for details!

Hurricane Irene is expected to become a major category 3 hurricane by this evening as it roars toward the Bahamas.  The eastward shift in the hurricane path and computer models continue to be a trend and it is something I’ll continue to monitor this week. 

(Enhanced IR Satellite with forecast path and various model projections)

All major cities on the East Coast are on high alert for impacts from this hurricane which include high surf, heavy rains, storm surge with inland flooding and strong winds.

Hello Irene!  The first hurricane of the Atlantic Basin has arrived.  With winds now at 75 mph it is expected to graze the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba before driving into the Bahamas en route to the Atlantic coast of Florida.  At this point there is a HIGH probability of a landfall at hurricane strength on the US mainland.  Here is the most recent satellite imagery:

Here is the latest hurricane track and position of Irene by 5 PM on Friday as a category 2 hurricane:



An isolated, slow moving thunderstorm sent a torrent of rain down across eastern Lucas county late Thursday evening.  Those that found themselves in the midst of what seemed like a monsoonal downpour received anywhere from 2″ to 4″+ of rain.  This caused significant flooding on roadways and in some basements in west Toledo, north Toledo and Oregon.  Take a look at rainfall estimates from Doppler Radar:

A flash flood warning was in effect for the majority of the evening as roads, cars and basements were overwhelmed with the standing water. 

Outside of this intense, compact area of rain, most areas barely saw a drop of rain.  In fact, official records at Toledo Express airport will only show 0.01″ of rain for the day!

In addition to the heavy rain, large hail was reported in downtown Toledo east into Oregon.

Heavy rains drenched Port Clinton this past weekend with as much as 6 to 7 inches of rain on Sunday.  Hydrologist are calling this a one in 500 year rain and flood event. 

Click on the radar animation below to see from the early afternoon hours capturing the moist onshore flow around a closed upper level low that moved over north central Ohio Sunday causing the repeated heavy rains:

(Notice the cyclonic or counter clockwise circulation around the upper level low)

More information on the floods and the perspective from the residents of Port Clinton can be found Here.

After 40 consecutive 100 degree days in Dallas, Texas the temperature yesterday fell short of the mark topping the thermometer at 97 degrees.  This record breaking heat wave was only eclipsed by the summer of 1980 when 42 consecutive days of 100 degree heat were observed at Dallas.  We did feel some of this heat earlier this summer, but the good news for us now, no heat like this in the near future.  Temperatures over the next week will be near normal with highs generally in the lower 80s. 

Tropical Storm Emily has entered into the Caribbean and is expected to bring topical storm force winds and very heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tonight and into tomorrow morning.  Currently winds are at 50 mph.

Here is the projected path of Emily:

There still is uncertainty on the strength and track of Emily.  Model consensus keeps her at tropical storm strength with a path just off the coast of Florida.   A modest amount of shear around 15 kts continues to hamper a more rapid intensification of Emily.  This tropical system will gradually turn more northwesterly under the influence of a subtropical ridge.  For the complete details check out the official National Hurricane Center discussion here.  Check out the forecast track eight computer models commonly used in forecasting hurricanes.  Notice the “uncertainty” and the path of greatest “agreement” between the model runs.

Record high temperatures on several occasions along with persistent heat brought the 2nd warmest July on record!  Now that the month has come to a close, the average monthly temperature was 78.8°.  This mark is +5.8° above normal and is only eclipsed by July of 1921 where the average monthly temperature was 79.0°.

The warmest day was 102° on July 21st.  Now imagine this…Dallas Texas is currently on a streak of 30 consecutive days of temperatures ABOVE 100° for a total of 37 days of triple digit heat this year.  I expect some of the warmest weather of the season remains over the central and southern plains through the first week of August continuing the schortching hot weather.

I’ve been keeping tabs on it, and yes we are 0.1° off of a tie for the warmest July on Record!  As it stands now, we are 2nd all  time with a monthly average temperature of 78.9°.

I’ll keep you updated as July comes to a close!

The record heat wave has come to and end…for now at least! More on when it will return in just a minute. We did rack up 9 consecutive days of 90° or warmer that covered a stretch from Saturday July 16th through Sunday July 24th. While it was a persistent and impressive heat wave it did fall 2 days short of a tie for 11 consecutive days at 90° or warmer in August of 1959.

What remains amazing is that the total 90° days this month now stands at 17 (with several more in the forecast!). This means that roughly 70% of days so far this month have been 90° or warmer! In fact, July of 2011 will likely be one of the warmest on record.

1. 79.0 1921
78.9 2011* unofficial
2. 78.6 1916
3. 78.3 1955
4. 77.8 1931
5. 77.6 2002
6. 77.6 1949
7. 77.6 1935
8. 77.5 1901
9. 77.4 1934
10. 77.3 1999

We currently rank 2nd on the list for all time warmest July’s and I expect more heat is in store later this week. Here’s why. The recent heat wave has not “moved on” it has only been suppressed back south for a short time. The dominant ridge anchored over the southern plains and the southeast will hold its ground sending the jet stream back north into Canada allowing a hot, humid zonal flow in the atmosphere (Generally a west to east flow). This should bring temperatures back into the 90s by Wednesday and remain there until at least the beginning of the weekend.