StormTrack Blog

It wasn’t even a question of if, but by how much would we shatter the record for the warmest March on record.  With the month now complete the average monthly temperature was +13.3 degrees above normal and for the first time ever averaged above 50 degrees. 

The month also included  six new daily record highs.  Two days in which we saw the warmest temperature ( 85 degrees) ever in the month of March.  And a record breaking nine consecutive days above 70 degrees (March 14-22)! 

Toledo was not alone in this warmth.  An astounding 7,700 record highs were broken across the country with over 80 other cities recording the warmest month of March on record including the following cities in Ohio:

Cleveland

Youngstown

Mansfield

Columbus

Cincinnati

 How about my prediction for the rest of spring?  Look for near normal temperatures for April, but a cooler than normal May.  I’ll call this the inevitable balance of nature!

Lightning can be attributed to around 90 deaths and almost 300 injuries each year!   Most of these are preventable due to some commons sense safety guidelines:

Remember if you are close enough to hear thunder you are in danger of being struck by lightning.   Here is a fun (But be safe…while indoors of course!) way to estimate how far away a lightning strike is:

“Flash to Bang”

You can estimate the distance to a thunderstorm using the “Flash to Bang” (time from seeing lightning until your hear thunder) by counting the seconds between the lightning “flash” and the “bang” of thunder. Each five seconds equals one mile. If you count 15 seconds, the flash was 3 miles away and you know that you are in a high danger zone. Six miles is still in the high danger zone.

The bite of winter has returned, mainly with respect to strong winds and bitter cold wind chills, but light snow and blowing snow did coat the landscape with some snow.  Driving in conditions like this still apparently still remain a mystery to some motorist as accidents and spin-outs seemed to be around every corner.  That’s another issue. 

Total snow accumulations for many areas were meek (1-2″) with much of that already blown to Youngstown by today’s strong winds.  (Joking of course)  However a few areas did experience a nice winter blast.  Parts of Ottawa, Sandusky, Seneca, Erie and Huron counties were blasted with lake effect snow that blanketed the area with 2-4″ or more by mid day on Friday.  Here is a radar image from 6 AM Friday morning.  Notice the lake effect snow band over lake Erie, which moved onshore in a southerly direction.  Here is the cool part about this.  A lake Huron connection was established in this very specific wind direction orientation which allowed an organized lake effect snow bank with heavier embedded snow squalls to develop off of lake Huron and intensify over lake Erie and then push onshore into areas east of Toledo.  Lake effect connections between two separate Great Lakes are generally rare and even more uncommon for them to impact our area.

The result through mid morning on Friday was an accumulation of 2-4″ over Erie an Huron counties. 

It’s been a very mild start to the new year, and to no surprise there is no snow to be found across our area.  As we head into the middle of January, that’s unusual.  The lack of Arctic air into the United States has been a dominant theme.  In fact, only 14% of the country has snow cover at this point in the month.  (If you follow my previous posts, this is due to a positive phase of the AO or Arctic Oscillation).  The result a mild beginning to January:

The warm weather and lack of snow has has some shelving the snow skis and reaching for the golf clubs.  Measured snow for Toledo so far this season has been 5.2″ which is -7.2″ below normal.  Toledo is not alone take a look at large cities across the lower Great Lakes that are suffering from huge snowfall deficits so far this season:

The average snowfall for a winter in Toledo is around 37″.

Reach into the mail box the next couple of weeks, grab the bill you see to heat your home and hold your breath…but you may be in line for a pleasant surprise.  Heating bills up to this point in the year are likely to be dramatically less compared to this point last year.  After a very harsh December of 2010, this past December was very mild.  Here’s the difference:

The most recent average temperature of 35.1° for December of 2011  was an astounding 10.5° warmer than the previous December of 2010 which averaged 24.6°.

It was the wettest year on record– officially broken in late December–and it pushed Toledo nearly 1″ above the previous record set back in 1950. 

 Highlights of the past year include:

Second wettest April on Record (6.33″)

Ninth wettest May on Record ( 5.88″)

Third driest June on Record ( 0.51″)

Wettest November on Record (7.14″)

 Toledo was just one of several dozen cities across the Great Lakes an North East to set all time precipitation records in 2011. 

Oh so close…despite the recent rains we fell 0.14″ of rain short of a tie for the wettest year on record.  No worries, over two weeks left in the month and I am nearly certain we will set the record by the middle of next week.  Here is the latest precipitation total for this year and where we stand in respect to the top 5 wettest years on record.

It’s almost officially winter and you may be asking “Where’s the snow?”  Good question.  Many have braced for a brutal winter, but it has certainly been quite a tame start to the season.  How does this year stack up to last year up to this point?  Check it out, the comparison from mid December 0f 10′ to mid December of 11′. 

December 13th of 2010:

 December 13th, 2011

 At Toledo specifically, the measurable snow for this season to date is 2.8″ which is -1.4″ below average up to this point.  That may seem like an insignificant amount, and I’d agree with that.  But the main message is the undeniable differences between this past winter and how this winter is unfolding.  Here is a closer examination of the Great Lakes region.

Great Lakes Snowpack:

 December 2010                                                                     

  December 2011

 Winter will undoubtedly bite with vengeance bringing the snow and cold, But not any time soon.   As I discussed in my winter weather outlook in my earlier posting, ouR winter would be controlled more so by shorter term atmospheric teleconnections, specifically the Arctic Oscillation (AO).  A positive phase on the AO equates to mild weather for the eastern half of the Untied States while a negative phase equates to an intrusion of Arctic air that would be more favorable for a hearty and thicker snowpack.  Here is the data backing this up…comparison of the AO from the past few Decembers. 

The positive, warmer phase has been dominant, and looks to remain so through at least late December.  This explains the lack of snow over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region so far this season.   The AO has dominated over all other factors including La Nina.

Historic Bering Sea Storm Surface Map

Surface Map

Just how serious is this storm?  It could be deadly.  Here is a statement from the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, Alaska:

 ”THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES AND PROPERTY.”

Wow.  Imagine hearing those headlines. 

Coastal areas will be especially hard hit.  Here is the storm surge expected in Nome, AK:

Storm surge 8-10' by tonight

This weekend shattered daily and monthly snowfall records from the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.  Analysis shows that 86% of the Northeast is covered by snow with the average depth of 4.4″  This wet, heavy snow coupled with much of the leaves on the trees resulted in downed limbs and branches knocking out power to 2 to 3 million people.