StormTrack Blog

A cold front caused some thunderstorms to track through our area between 2 & 4 pm today.  Most of the activity was just thunderstorms with heavy downpours, but some isolated severe weather was reported.

Strong winds caused downed power lines in Jerusalem township, 1″ hail was reported in Arlington & Clyde, and 1.25″ hail was reported in Cygnet.

There are currently three named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin…Hurricane Igor, Hurricane Julia and most recently Tropical Storm Karl. Both Igor and Julia appear to have reached their max intensity as major category 4 hurricanes. Forecasts call for favorable conditions the next few days which may sustain both at major hurricane status until increased wind shear and a turn to the northwest into cooler waters begins to weaken both tropical systems. Both these storms are being steered by an area of high pressure over the eastern Atlantic as many hurricanes in the Atlantic are.

Satellite picture of the tropics as of 11:30 AM on 9/15:

Tropical Storm Karl has made its initial landfall after recently developing in the past 24 hours off the Yucatan Peninsula. This storm is expected to reemerge in the Gulf of Mexico and may briefly become a category 1 hurricane before making landfall a second time south of the US border in Mexico.

Update on Hurricane Igor as of Monday Morning:

Technical Discussion (NHC):
IGOR REMAINS A POWERFUL AND WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL…CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70 C…A 15 N MI CIRCULAR EYE…AND SPIRAL RAINBANDS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM 0000 UTC…AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 130 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS IS COMMON FOR MAJOR HURRICANES IN FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTS…INTERNAL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY GOVERN THE INTENSITY CHANGE OF IGOR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SINCE IT APPEARS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS NOT YET BEGUN…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING TODAY. THEREAFTER…A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IGOR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER SHEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 11 KT…AND IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT APPROACHES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FLATTENING IN 3 TO 4 DAYS…THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW MUCH…IF ANY…SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD MORE RIDGING NORTH OF IGOR…RESULTING IN A TRACK FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OVERALL…THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT FROM THE LAST CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION…BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

A cold front that passed through the area Friday morning is allowing the coolest air since mid-May to take residence in the region.  Temps will fail to reach 70° in many locations.  Highs will rebound back into the mid 70s Sunday and low/mid 80s for Labor Day.

Earl will continue tracking near the northeastern coast during Saturday, and then move into SE Canada before dissipating.  Check out our Hurricane Tracker and the National Hurricane Center for more details.

Fiona is another storm in the Atlantic, and she should gradually track north and away from any land area.  More tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic could develop over the next week.