StormTrack Blog

An approaching cold front will continue to trigger clusters of storms the rest of the day into the evening.  Some storms will be strong with large hail and gusty winds.  Isolated severe storms will occur with 1″+ hail and winds of 58+ mph.

The storms will not move very quickly, and with the high humidity in place, torrential downpours will occur.  Those areas that see repeated storms may experience flooding in poor drainage areas.

From the National Weather Service:

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season (June 1 through November 30),  NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

• 14 to 23 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

 The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

•  Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.

•  Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.

• High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

“FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we’re prepared for hurricane season,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it’s important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can’t control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you’re ready.”

More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at http://www.Ready.gov and http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.

NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

The majority of the holiday weekend will be dry.  A cold front should spark a few thunderstorms on Memorial Day.  Highs will stay in the mid to upper 80s.  Humidity levels will rise Sunday into Monday.

The high temperature hit 90° at Toledo Express Airport on Wednesday.   This is the warmest temperature of the year thus far, and it’s the warmest temp we have seen since it was 94° on August 16.

Normal high for Wednesday was 74°, and the record was 93° set in 1911.

National Safety Boating week runs into the upcoming holiday weekend.  Click here for a website all about boating safety.

We always have the updated marine forecasts and advisories on our weather page–just click on the boating icon below the 7-day forecast.

Tree Pollen:      Low

Grass Pollen:    Moderate

Mold Spores:    Moderate

The counts should increase to high Wednesday, and very high Thursday.

A big pattern change will occur early next week, and it will give us very warm temps much of the week.

Highs should make it into the lower 80s Sunday, then mid 80s Monday & Tuesday , then upper 80s by Wednesday.  These temps will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

The record highs look like they will hold for another year, but we will be kind of close (especially Tuesday).

Record highs:

91°  Sunday

90°  Monday

89°  Tuesday

93°  Wednesday

The warmest day of the year so far was 84° on April 15.  The last time the temp was above that was all the way to August 16, when it hit 94°.

We have only hit 80° on 5 days in April, and 2 days in May (prior to today).

May only produced 3 days with highs in the 80s the last 2 years, but in 2007, we had 9 days in the 80s and 4 days in the 90s.

A slow-moving storm will produce showers today into Tuesday.  Some of the rain will be quite steady at times.  Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are possible.

Toledo Rain Stats:

May       3.23″     + 1.66″

Year   13.17″      + 1.93″

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

0541 PM     05/11/2010     

 TORNADO  IN  CLYDE, OHIO

SANDUSKY COUNTY

Possible tornado near Clyde.  A few trees knocked down and

a trailer moved off of its foundation. Numerous reports

of funnels.

The National Weather Service in Cleveland put together a great summary page of Friday’s severe weather here.   They also released this information regarding the damage Friday evening:

TORNADO CONFIRMED IN WOOD COUNTY

LOCATION…SOUTH OF NEW ROCHESTER IN WOOD COUNTY OHIO
DATE…MAY 7 2010
ESTIMATE TIMED…735 PM TO 740 PM
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING…EF1
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH…150 YARDS
PATH LENGTH…2 MILES

…SUMMARY…
An EF1 tornado touched down in rural Wood county near the
intersection of Portage and Emerson roads in Montgomery township.
The tornado traveled north northeast approximately two miles before
lifting near the intersection of Kenner Road and US Route 6 near
New Rochester.  Five barns were leveled along the damage path.
Several homes also sustained roof damage.  Two grain bins were also
destroyed.  Many trees and limbs were downed along the damage path

.DOWNBURST STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE CONFIRMED IN ERIE COUNTY
OHIO…

LOCATION…SANDUSKY IN ERIE COUNTY OHIO
DATE…MAY 7 2010
ESTIMATE TIMED…805 PM TO 815 PM
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED…70 TO 90 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH…50 YARDS
PATH LENGTH…7 MILES

…SUMMARY…
Downburst wind damage was observed in western Erie county.  The
damage path began southwest of Sandusky along Homegardner Road where
a barn was damaged and many trees toppled.  The damage path
continued northeast across state routes 2 and 101 and through the
city of Sandusky.  The most concentrated damage was along state
route 101 between state route 2 and the Sandusky city limits.  Many
trees and tree limbs were downed in this area along with 13 utility
poles.  A few homes and building sustained roof damage in this area
as well.  Damage in the city of Sandusky was sporadic and consisted
mainly of downed trees and limbs.