StormTrack Blog

High temperatures will continue into the mid & upper 30s for the extended forecast, with some lower 40s possible in some areas.  Computer models show no major change in this new pattern for at least the next week or so.  The milder trend looks like it will hold through next weekend.

The snow cover from recent events will thwart some of the initial warming.  If we didn’t have any snow cover or cold air hugging the surface, we would easily jump through the 40s and 50s during this period.

Temps will remain well above the normal high/low of 31° / 16°

Toledo Express Airport:

January:    6.9″     (3.5 inches above normal for this point in the month)

Season:    13.9″     (0.6 inches below normal)

January is normally our snowiest month, producing an average of 11″.  Milder temps for the next week or two may keep accumulation potentials down a bit.

 As many people locally are looking forward to highs in the 30s, a lot of folks in Australia were not happy with the 30s.  Their 30-degree weather was in degrees Celsius.

Temps hit record highs in Melbourne overnight, with the temperature at midnight of 37 C, which is 98.6 F.  The temperature hung around 34 C/93 F much of the night, making it the hottest night in 100 years.  

Australians had trouble sleeping in the heat, so they flocked to beaches and ice cream shops.

Trains were disrupted due to the heat — either the absence air conditioning, or due to buckling tracks.

Other sections of the continent had highs above 40 C, which is 104 F.

 (some story info courtesy of CBS NewsNet)

 (courtesy of Australia Bureau of Meteorology)

Cold weather is expected to persist for the remainder of the weekend.  A strong area of Arctic High pressure is holding across the nations midsection allowing a cold blast from the Arctic to penetrate deep into the eastern half of the United States.  Temperatures for our area will be about 10 degrees below average, but a deep freeze is crippling the Gulf states and Florida in particular.  This deep freeze is expected to possibly damage or kill a significant portion of the citrus crop across the south. 

A significant change in the atmospheric flow will signal a noticeable chance in our weather pattern by the middle of the week.  This deep trough in the jet stream will lift back into Canada and the atmospheric flow will become more zonal.  (Flow from the west to the east)  This will allow for milder Pacific air to return to the region instead of the cold Arctic air that has dominated through the month of January thus far.  This “split flow” in the jet stream will bring milder weather by the middle of the week and is more typical of what we would expect during an El Nino winter.  Under this scenario the northern branch of the jet stream stays north in Canada limiting the Arctic air that invades the United States.  The southern branch of the jet stream will bring active and wet weather back to the southern tier of the country bringing storms to the California coast and across the Gulf Coast and into Florida.  For our area we remain mild and dry with Pacific air in place.

Other atmospheric signals called teleconnections (AO -Arctic Oscillation & NAO – North Atlantic Oscillation)  indicate that the middle and possibly end of January may have temperatures near or above average.

Snow accumulations will begin to taper off through the course of the day.  Total snow accumulations will end up falling into the 3-5″ range by the storms end.  The very light and fluffy snow will begin to blow and drift this afternoon as a trough of low pressure swings southward through the area bringing gusty northwest winds between 10 and 20 mph.  This will cause roadways, especially in outlying areas to glaze over again with pockets of snow. 

There will be some minor additional accumulations through your Friday as this system departs the area.  Most locations will see just a coating to 1″ of snow.  However, our far eastern counties of Ottawa, Erie, Huron and Sandusky may see an additional 1-3″ with lake enhanced or lake effect snow showers through the afternoon and into the early evening.  Travel farther east into Cleveland will be treacherous with significant lake effect effect snow possibly bringing up to 8″ of fresh snow. 

Winter weather advisory entire viewing area thru Friday morning.

• Final accums by Friday AM  3-5″ most areas with some isolated spots of 6″.
• Lake-effect snow showers will be around Fri PM/eve.
• Up to an additional inch possible, mainly eastern counties.
• Breezy conditions Friday will blow and drift the powdery snow.
• Very cold weekend to follow.  Could be close to zero Sunday AM.

Travel to areas east of Cleveland and up through northwestern Pennsylvania will continue to be a bit of an issue.  Persistent lake-effect snow bands have dumped heavy amounts since the beginning of the weekend.  More lake-effect snow will redevelop Friday into Saturday. 

Here is what is on the ground as of Tuesday evening:

..ASHTABULA COUNTY  
  
   PIERPONT 2SE          33.0   913 PM   1/5    
   ASHTABULA             18.0   840 PM   1/5    
   ASHTABULA 1SW         14.0   900 PM   1/5    
   
..CRAWFORD COUNTY  
  
   BUCYRUS                4.3   919 PM   1/5    
   
..CUYAHOGA COUNTY  
  
   GARFIELD HTS          17.0   916 PM   1/5    
   BROADVIEW HTS         13.0   911 PM   1/5    
   NORTH ROYALTON        12.0   912 PM   1/5    
   CLEVELAND              8.0   841 PM   1/5    
   CLE AIRPORT            7.0   915 PM   1/5    
   CLEVELAND              7.0   909 PM   1/5    
   EUCLID                 6.0   902 PM   1/5    

   
..GEAUGA COUNTY  
  
   CHAGRIN FALLS         27.0   909 PM   1/5    
   CHARDON               26.0   841 PM   1/5    
   BAINBRIDGE            24.0   907 PM   1/5    
   RUSSELL TWP           24.0   919 PM   1/5    
   THOMPSON 5SW          24.0   912 PM   1/5    
   MONTVILLE             23.0   900 PM   1/5    
   CHARDON               19.0   908 PM   1/5    
   BURTON                16.0   909 PM   1/5    
   

..HURON COUNTY  
  
   NEW LONDON 3NW         7.0   922 PM   1/5    
   
..LAKE COUNTY  
  
   MADISON               19.0   920 PM   1/5    
   SOUTH MADISON         15.0   908 PM   1/5    
   PERRY TOWNSHIP        13.0   913 PM   1/5    
   MADISON  5 S          11.0   842 PM   1/5    
   CONCORD TWP.          10.5   922 PM   1/5    
   KIRTLAND 4SW          10.0   916 PM   1/5    
   MENTOR                10.0   904 PM   1/5    
   WILLOUGHBY             9.0   913 PM   1/5    

   
..LORAIN COUNTY  
  
   N RIDGEVILLE           8.0   923 PM   1/5    
   OBERLIN                6.0   916 PM   1/5    
   SHEFFIELD LAKE         4.7   918 PM   1/5    
      
..MAHONING COUNTY  
  
   BOARDMAN SE            8.0   917 PM   1/5    
   
..MEDINA COUNTY  
  
   HINCKLEY               9.0   925 PM   1/5    
   MEDINA                 8.3   922 PM   1/5    
   BRUNSWICK              8.0   920 PM   1/5    
   MEDINA                 6.5   840 PM   1/5    
   
..PORTAGE COUNTY  
  
   RAVENNA 1E            12.9   918 PM   1/5    
   KENT                   9.0   921 PM   1/5    
   
..RICHLAND COUNTY  
  
   MANSFLD ARPT           9.0   915 PM   1/5    
   
..STARK COUNTY  
  
   MASSILLON/PERRY TWP.   6.2   901 PM   1/5    
   
..SUMMIT COUNTY  
  
   SAGAMORE HILLS        14.0   902 PM   1/5    
   GREEN                  6.0   912 PM   1/5    
   CAK AIRPORT            5.0   914 PM   1/5    
   TALLMADGE              5.0   901 PM   1/5    
   
..TRUMBULL COUNTY  
  
   MESOPOTAMIA           13.0   923 PM   1/5    
   NEWTON FALLS          13.0   924 PM   1/5    
   YNG AIRPORT            8.0   916 PM   1/5    
   
..WAYNE COUNTY  
  
   KIDRON 1N              6.0   907 PM   1/5    
   WOOSTER 7N             6.0   922 PM   1/5    
  
   
..CRAWFORD COUNTY  --  PENNSYLVANIA
  
   CROSSINGVILLE 2NW     57.0   900 PM   1/5    
   CONNEAUTVILLE 6SW     25.0   906 PM   1/5    
   MEADVILLE             23.0   919 PM   1/5    
   CANADOHTA LAKE        20.0   901 PM   1/5    
   MEADVILLE 5W          20.0   923 PM   1/5    
   LINESVILLE            15.5   909 PM   1/5    
   
..ERIE COUNTY  --  PENNSYLVANIA
  
   EDINBORO              37.0   841 PM   1/5    
   AMITY TWP             34.0   906 PM   1/5    
   NORTHEAST             33.0   924 PM   1/5    
   NORTHEAST 6SW         31.0   920 PM   1/5    
   FRANKLIN CTR          26.0   907 PM   1/5    
   FAIRVIEW              14.6   914 PM   1/5    
   MILLCREEK TWP.        11.5   841 PM   1/5    
   LAKE CITY             10.0   908 PM   1/5    
   ERIE AIRPORT           9.0   915 PM   1/5    

The month of January features (climatologically) the coldest temperatures.  Normal highs only range 31° to 32° the entire month, and lows range 16° to 18°.

It has been as warm as 71° (1890 and 1950) and as cold as -20° (1984).

Normal liquid precip is 1.93″.  Normal snowfall is 10.8″, which is the snowiest month of the winter.

Of course these are just statistical norms, but they give you an idea of how January can end up.

Sunrise ranges from 8:02 am on the 1st, to 7:48 am on the 31st.  Sunset ranges from 5:16 pm on the 1st, to 5:50 pm on the 31st.  We gain about 48 minutes of daylight during the month.

Temperature Range:

52° on the 1st, to 11° on the 10th and 12th of the month.

Precipitation:

Liquid precip (rain and melted snow/ice) was 3.03″, which was 0.39″ above normal.

Snowfall was 7″, which was 1.3″ below normal.  Snowfall for the season is running 4″ below normal.