This weekend is when we fall back one hour to eastern standard time.  The official change occurs at 2 a.m. Sunday.  Fire officials ask that you take this time to change batteries in smoke and carbon monoxide detectors.

Sunrise & Sunset times:

Saturday:   8:06 a.m. / 6:31 p.m.  EDT

Sunday:      7:08 a.m. / 5:30 p.m.  EST

Saturday evening should be mainly dry and cool.  Winds should decrease during the day Saturday, and should be SW 5-15 mph during the evening.

Temps at 6 pm should be around 50, then fall into the lower 40s by 10 pm.

100% Chance of Boo

We should have some showers at times today, especially west…but we will have many dry hours today as well.

The cold front will move through tonight, and rain chances will increase greatly as the evening progresses and into the overnight.  Some thunderstorms are likely.  Rainfall amounts may total between 1/2 and 1 inch.

Winds will really pick up as the storm approaches.  Some gusts near 35 mph are possible today, tonight and the first half of Saturday.

Cooler air will ease into the area Saturday morning, and afternoon highs will only be in the low/mid 50s.  Sunday’s highs will remain in the lower 50s.

A storm system will track through our area Friday into early Saturday.  It will allow very mild temps to stay in the area until Saturday morning.

This storm will produce occasional rain and storms Friday through Saturday morning.  There will be many dry hours during this period, but the occasional rain will be heavy at times.

An analysis of many computer models over the last few days shows there is potential for over an inch of rain with this system.  Rainfall estimates have been as low as 1/2 inch, and as high as 2″.

A cold front will pass through the area Friday night, and some hours of heavy rainfall look likely between midnight and daybreak Saturday.

By the way…this same storm has already produced some accumulations in the Rockies of 1 to 3 **feet** of snow, with additional snow falling today.  Snow will spread into part of the Plains, with western Nebraska and the Dakotas seeing a significant snowfall of 6 to 12″.

That threat for snow will move well north of our area, so it will be just rain for us.  Colder air will, however, move into the region over the weekend and take highs back down into the lower 50s.

This month has featured below normal highs the majority of the month.  Highs were below normal the first 18 days of the month.

However, 6 out of the last 7 days have had above normal highs, and that warm trend will continue this week and finish out the month.

Normal high for this point of the month is in the upper 50s.

About a dozen power poles were snapped and several trees were down due to a downburst Friday evening.  It happened at around 7:30 pm in Perrysburg near Roachton and Shelder roads.

A downburst is a localized blast of wind that rushes down from a cloud, hits the ground, and then spreads out horizontally.  Downbursts (aka straight-line winds) can be further classified into macrobursts and microbursts.

Macrobursts affect an area greater than 2 1/2 miles, and can produce winds up to 135 mph.  Microbursts affect an area less than 2 1/2 miles, but wind speeds can get as high as 170 mph.

These types of winds can create significant damage in a straight, or linear, pattern.  (Whereas a tornado’s damage is more circular in nature).

Straight line winds are also quite dangerous for pilots, who experience rapid wind speed and change in direction.

Storm report courtesy NWS Cleveland.  Diagram courtesy NOAA/NWS.

Rainfall from overnight and today will total over an inch in many locations.  This will add to the surplus we have already achieved this month.

Toledo Express Airport’s rain stats prior to the start of the rain last evening:

October:    2.62″    (surplus of 0.99″)

2009:      33.00″   (surplus of 5.93″)

A storm that is currently in the southern Plains will track into the area on Friday.  This storm is tapping into moisture from the remnants of Rick — a hurricane near Baja California which has weakened to a tropical storm in western Mexico.

Current computer models suggest the potential for 1″ of rain or more depending on the exact storm track.  The clouds, rain and winds off the lake (48° water) will keep Friday cool.

Highs on Tuesday hit the mid & upper 60s, making it the warmest high in 22 days.  Temps today should touch or break 70° in most locations.

Since we’ve had quite a cool October, here’s a look back on some of our warmer days:

67°  -  October 20

72°  -  September 27

80°  -  September 23

Highs today will reach the lower 60s — marking the first time with a normal high in 22 days.

On Wednesday, it looks like we will hit/break 70°, and that hasn’t happened since Sept. 27 when it hit 72°.