Danny is gone, and we are still watching a few areas in the Atlantic.  However, a major hurricane is just to the west of Mexico.

Hurricane Jimena is a borderline category five hurricane with winds just under 150 mph (winds over 155 mph are category 5).  It is moving toward the Baja California peninsula.  It will weaken slightly, but still may be a cat 3 or 4 storm during landfall.  The remnants will push north through western Mexico, and will affect the southwest USA with rain by the weekend.

You can track tropical weather with our WTOL Hurricane Tracker.

For the first day of September,  near record lows are possible for Tuesday morning.  All conditions are favorable for temperatures to plummet.  Here is what we look for when we are expecting a cold night:

1. Clear skies: This allows for good radiative cooling (all the heat from the day escapes due to no cloud cover)

2. Light winds: This limits the mixing of air in the atmosphere  allowing the lowest layer to cool the most.

3. High Pressure:  This brings dry air.  Temperatures cool faster when the air is dry verses a higher moisture content. 

All three of these ingredients have come together which will result in temperatures to drop into the low and middle 40s during the end of August. 

RECORD LOW: 41° degrees set in 1967 at Toledo Express Airport

The storms that moved through during the afternoon and evening continue to work east of the area.  Some 2″+ rain totals occurred, as well as some gusty winds and large hail.  We did have a few severe thunderstorm warnings, and a few local storm reports of tree limbs down.

The storm system responsible is tracking away from the area, and cooler air will spill into the area over the next 48 hours.  A secondary cold front will pass by Saturday afternoon.  A slight chance of a shower is possible with the front and some afternoon heating.

Sunday’s highs will struggle to break 70° in most areas, and our far northwestern cities may not exceed 65°.

Lows Sunday and Monday nights will dip into the mid and upper 40s away from the lake.  These lows will be about 12 to 15 degrees below normal, and will flirt with some record lows.

A gradual warm-up will occur as the upcoming week progresses.

We continue to watch tropical storm Danny.  He has been weakening quite a bit, and the forecast track remains similar to the ones issued the past few days.  The center of Danny may graze Cape Cod, but most land areas will not see the brunt of the storm at all.  Gusty winds and high surf will affect the eastern seaboard.

The 5 pm update for Danny from the National Hurricane Center has reduced the intensity forecast of the storm.

Previous forecasts included a few hours featuring Danny gaining minimal hurricane status, but it appears as Danny gets a little bit more to the west, the environment will not be conducive for major strengthening.

The forecast track still keeps the majority of Danny offshore.  However, heavy surf and gusty winds will hit the eastern seaboard, especially coastal New England.  Bill did this the other week.

The National Hurricane Center announced at 11 am today that the system we spoke about yesterday is now a tropical storm.  Danny is now the fourth named system this year.  (Insert reference to the song Danny Boy, or to Ted Knight in Caddyshack here ["How about a Fresca?  Hmm?]).

The official track from the NHC keeps the center of Danny offshore quite a bit.  It will graze coastal New England later this week.  High surf and gusty winds will pound the northeast as Danny flirts with category one hurricane status.

Check out the WTOL Hurricane Tracker for the latest information and track.  A special section is dedicated to Danny, and this also appears above the 7-day forecast on the main weather page.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas of disturbed weather.

The first is across Central America and is mostly over land.  The forecast is for little additional strengthening.

The second area is just north of the Caribbean and east of the Bahamas.  The NHC has been watching this one very closely, and has sent an aircraft to investigate it.  Some strengthening is forecast the next few days.  If the storm hits winds of 39 mph or higher, it will be named Danny.

Various computer models take the center of the system close to the Atlantic seaboard, and a few bring it on land near the Carolinas.   We will continue to watch it the rest of the week.

Much cooler & less humid weather will set up over the area this weekend, keeping highs in the low/mid 70s and lows in the low/mid 50s.  Highs may struggle to get out of the 60s in our northwest counties.  This is more typical of mid-September or late May.

Normal high this time of year is 80°, normal low is 60°.   None of the forecast temps are near any records. 

This weekend will be quite the departure from the last two.  Last weekend (Aug 15-16) had highs of 88° on Saturday and 94° on Sunday.

The weekend before that (Aug 8-9) featured a 85° high Saturday and 94° Sunday.

Previous cooler highs:

• 79° – Aug 7
• 69° – July 22

Previous cooler lows:

• 58° – Aug 14
• 57° – Aug 6
• 52° – Aug 3

Evening update:

Scattered storms that developed east of I-75 have pushed out of the viewing area.  This prompted a few scattered warnings for thunderstorms that had the potential of producing hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.  A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 10 pm tonight for our eastern counties; however the main threat has passed for strong or severe storms.  This watch will likely be allowed to expire early. 

Early afternoon update:

Scattered storms are developing in some areas.  Some additional storms will fire up through late afternoon and early evening.  Storms will be scattered — so not all areas will be affected.  A few of the storms could be strong.

Noon update:

The National Weather Service is evaluating our area for a possible watch. 

11 am update: 

The first line of showers & thunder has passed through the northern half of our viewing area.  Clouds will break for some sun.  A few storms are beginning to develop in northeast Indiana up through Hillsdale county.  These will continue to develop and track northeastward.

6 am post:

Storm clusters will track into the area today from the west.  The time frame of mid/late morning through the afternoon is the best chance for the area to see rain and storms.  A cold front will pass through late this evening, so some thunderstorms are possible until then.

As the mugginess continues to increase, this will create an environment for storms to unleash heavy rainfall. 

Some of these storms could be severe with strong winds and large hail.  Updated watches and warnings, when they occur, will be posted on our weather page.

Hurricane Bill continues to waffle between category 3 and 4 status.  His track continues to be between the US and Bermuda.  Check out our Hurricane Tracker for more.

The Bahamas, Bermuda and the eastern US seaboard will see strong, high waves through the weekend.

(photo from NOAA)

Hurricane Bill is still way out in the Atlantic, but his future path is being watched closely already.  The storm should gain category 3 status and stay that strong for awhile.

We look at a whole host of computer models, and they all trend north of the Bahamas and east of the USA.  Bermuda looks like they may see the brunt of Bill over the weekend.

The eastern seaboard is not out of the woods yet, but each computer model run suggests a track away from the US.  A strong cold front will pass through our area Thursday into Friday, and that may be enough to push Bill farther into the Atlantic away from the shore — but that means it will be closer to Bermuda.

Check out our WTOL Hurricane Tracker.  Under the big map is a special section for Bill.  One of the choices in that section is “model predictions”.  This will show the range of the computer model solutions.